3/19: 1ST Day of Spring & SNOW Chances

LAST Day of Winter came to a close and what a 'chilly' way to end it; for some of us. Here are the Highs from Tuesday:
Casper: 40°
Buffalo/Gillette: 31°
Sheridan: 35°
Douglas: 43°

BUT...SPRING is here and will arrive Early Wednesday at 5:03 AM Mountain Daylight Time... Here's a great graphic showing you the Equinox

TEMPERATURES will Warm Up in the Lower to Middle 50°s for many of us in Central & Eastern WY on Wednesday. Here is the 4PM Temps from the RPM Model for tomorrow.

SNOW will Arrive on Wednesday for West of the Divide... So let me discuss this Snow Chance and then our Thursday Chances tomorrow night.

--This shows the Probability of 8" or GREATER thru Thursday Night..including Wednesday's Snowfall.

As you can see, the Tetons/Jackson Hole/YNP/ Gros Ventres mountains could likely see the Heaviest Snow Potential





That being said, here is what the Snow Amount could look like:

--This is based on the 95th Percentile through  Thursday Night.  Tetons/Jackson could wound up getting over a Foot in the Lighter Blue and most of Western WY will likely see 6-12" in many spots.  
AS this system spill Eastward up to 1/2 Foot for Bighorns possibly.   Central WY in the Lower Elevations could be in the 1-4" Range...Rough Estimate, but a better grip on the Models will be on Wednesday.

Friday March 30th...

Looking Quite Mild in the 50°s so far, but at this moment I can only use the GFS Model to forecast as I look forward into late March.

-- This is showing Dry conditions for the Rehearsal Dinner for you Krissy and your Family.  Temperatures should be in the 50°s as I said before. 

Here is what it looks like for 6PM Friday Night:.. Dry and Mild   and just a few Rain/Snow showers in Western WY...should not affect you all at the Time.






WEDDING DAY...(Saturday)

Saturday @ 6PM:  Right now, looking kinda 'rainy' at this moment for Casper with a small chance of showers.  Best shower chance right now looks like in the Laramies.

HOWEVER, the GFS model can over-exaggerate with Moisture/Precip.

I would call it a 10-20% Chance of Precip (right now)..

6PM SATURDAY TEMPERATURES...

So far looking like slightly below Normal for Temperatures...  Upper 40°s- Nearing 50°









I hope this gives you a Preview to better plan for the Wedding.  I'll keep an eye on the latest late in the Week if anything changes!

3/18: Monday Evening BLOG

1st Off...I want to show you what our 6-10 Day Temperature/Precipitation Outlook is looking like.

<  THIS is showing the Temperature Outlook and now how WY is slightly cooler of 33-40% below Normal, BUT nothing like East of the Mississippi River.

Looking like the Ohio Valley and Mid-South is going to suffer that Trough much longer...

However, I do think Seasonal Temperatures are okay during this time.

< PRECIP outlook for next 6-10 Days.  Much of WY will stay below Average..about 40% Below Average...




THAT Being Said...looks like our next week will stay Dry/Cool..but our next round of Snow could potentially arrive by Thursday in Central WY.









THURSDAY'S Snow Chances..

1st, here is the NAM from Tonight's Model Run:

--A 1004 Low is poised to develop in SE WY and could bring 'some' upslope potential for Central WY, including Casper and Buffalo as we get to Noon Thursday through Thursday Evening.

This didn't look quite as impressive from this mornings run, but it could change. 

At this time, I feel the Snowys/Sierra Madre's could be in the better spot for better Snow Amounts.



2nd..here the GFS from Tonight's Run

-- HERE, a 'Broad' 1000 LOW could slide in for Central WY by 6PM Thursday.

What concerns me is the SANDWICH EFFECT.

Whats That??
You have 2 Streams of Moisture into WY..
1) First wave slides into West of the Divide and splits into the Bighorns/Southern MT.

2) A Southern Stream slides along I-80 in the Sierra's/Snowy's.  THIS is what its shaping up to do so far.  

CENTRAL WY???...Well with our Humidity being quite dry..it'll take a while to get snow to 'moisten' and 'condense' so as the Front passes through the Evening...not enough Snow is potential to accumulate. THUS, this is what I call the 'Sandwich Effect'

SO HOW MUCH Could we see Out of This?

The New WPC (Weather Prediction Center) is showing the chances of 4" or GREATER for this Thursday's Storm.

What I mentioned for Central WY correlates to the GFS...West of the Divide can likely see up to 8" and then the Snow could spill over 4" for the Bighorns and Sierras/Snowys.

AS FOR Casper/Central WY...The 'Sandwich Effect' is showing up.

Will keep you updated!~

Mike

3/1: WEEKEND OUTLOOK

HAPPY  1st Day of March.  We sure did soar in the 40°s here in Central WY as I forecasted and we swung into March like a Lamb.  Meaning, we saw calm and mild conditions.


Lets get to this Forecast!
 
SATURDAY:
Not much to discuss except Temperatures slightly warmer than Friday and 'Nearing' 50° in Casper!  
Much of WY will stay dry.  Inversions Should break on this day, meaning a Higher Altitude could be much warmer than a location that is lower in Elevation.  

--The 540 (Rain/Snow) line surges Eastward, meaning that a Ridge is building in the Inner Mtn. West and WY is on top of it!










...Then we get to Sunday!...when the Fun stuff begins.

SUNDAY:
 Blustery to start as High Pressure will set up shop to our South and West and an Low Pressure will form in ID/MT and travel East through the afternoon and evening.  
Ahead of the Cold Front, BLUSTERY conditions...especially in the Wind Prone areas.

--Afternoon Winds should stay around 30-40mph in Central WY, including Casper area.

--Laramies should see wind speeds around 40-50 sustained and Gusts over 60-70

(HANG ON TO YOUR HATS!)

--O yea!...That 'SNOW' threat...slipped my mind to include.  MUCH of Central WY will stay Dry and including the Cheyenne area..

Majority of the Snow in WY is forecasted to stay West of the Divide, Bighorns, and Black Hills.
I think the Black Hills could see their share as early as Monday early Morning.

A 1000mb Low will situate in Northern WY, meaning the Heavier Snows will stay North in Central MT around Billings area.


HOW MUCH SNOW??

As you can see, We'll keep the bulk of the snow in the Mountainous terrain for West of the Divide where they may see over a Foot in the heavier bands around the Tetons.  WY Range could see over a half-foot and also includes the Bighorns.

SOUTHERN WY..can't forget about you!

  There is a Southern Stream component and if this Surface Low gets its act together, over  a FOOT is possible in Sierra Madre's and Snowy's.

An 'inch' if best for Casper Mtn..and Black Hills with 'slight' accumulation in far SE Crook County.




MONDAY
 

--Snow could increase on the 'back-side' of the Low as it trickles to the South and East in the Dakota's.  

BUT, if there is any..could see a few snow showers in Central WY (Casper) Monday Afternoon-Evening.  Little to no Accumulation is expected.