12/26: MORE Light Snow for Thursday

Good Wednesday Evening, everyone.

It was good to see Snow on Christmas eve and even day after Christmas.  This LOW developed Tuesday in ID and dropped some good amounts and now coming here in WY.  Along with it, a Frontal Boundary is draped from MT and South in CO.

But here is the Current Position of the LOW Pressure with the Radar.

The LOW is just South and East of Casper and will continue with the Northerly Flow .  Snow is not shown, but it is evident when you walk outside...providing the 'ground truth' of the Radar image.  Some have seen over 2" with light snow continuing to fall.

A New Low or 'shortwave' will slide in from MT and drape through WY tomorrow evening around 5PM.  This will continue our Snow chances.  Not a "Heavy" snow, but just enough to cause slick spots.  So travel safely.

Here is the HI-RES RAPID REFRESH (HRRR) I like to use when I "Now-Cast" and this shows the Accumulated Snowfall through 11AM Thursday.  Not a large amount of snow, but Casper Mtn and Ten Sleep and Black Hills. could get up to 2-3".  However, Casper and Buffalo/Sheridan could see up to 1-2" additional snowfall.  Note that 'donut hole' in Platte Co?  Some dry air could intrude for SE WY.  Majority of the Snow will remain in the Sierra Madre's and Snowy Ranges.

12/21: Christmas Snow Potential

HAPPY 1ST DAY OF WINTER, first off!

Don't forget this will be the shortest day of sunlight for the year with us getting only 9 Hours and 33 Minutes.  We will start gaining an extra minutes of sunlight beginning on Christmas Eve.  By the Way, since the Southern Hemisphere is in Summer now, Sydney, Australia is forecasted near 80° on Monday!


Anyway, lets get to this SNOW Potential when Monday comes into picture:
 1st Off, talk about the LACK of snow Central and Eastern WY is experiencing so far, as compared to Western WY.

Colors in the Purple show 30-70" of snow fall depth, while Dubois, the Basins, and rest of Central WY is barren.  This 'could' change when Monday rolls around.


Before I get to MONDAY, there are chances of Snow for West of the Divide for Sunday Morning.

-- Bulk of the Snow will remain in Western WY around the Tetons and YNP.  Portions of the Star Valley could see some light snow through the day on Sunday, too. 

--Otherwise, East of the Divide, Dry/Breezy and Sunny weather continues for the rest of the Weekend.





CHRISTMAS EVE:  Things start to get unsettled when Low Pressure will eject out of the Pacific Coast as a Trough will dig in the Great Basin and moisture will begin to feed into the Rockies.  BUT, I do think a Surface Low could form and give some upslope conditions with moderate snow East of the Divide.

Here is what Each Model Shows for Monday Evening... 

NAM 5PM CHRISTMAS EVE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GFS 5PM CHRISTMAS EVE

EURO 5PM CHRISTMAS EVE

As you can see, the NAM/GFS is liking the snow to slowly pick up here in Casper and up along I-25.  Here is what the 8PM Image looks like from the NAM.

--Intense Snow trying to build in for Central WY, thus this is where the up slope can pile up.  Moderate to Heavy snow could occur, IF this holds up.









NOW, here is what the models are showing it at 11PM Christmas Eve Night:

11PM NAM CHRISTMAS EVE

11PM GFS CHRISTMAS EVE

Looking like 'Ole St. Nick will be quite snowy making his routes through WY to deliver his presents to all the good boys & girls.

GFS CHRISTMAS MORNING

--Christmas Morning and we'll continue with the light snow and snow showers from Casper and points West.  Otherwise, moderate snow possibly in the Black Hills, and the Eastern 1/3 of the State. 

Sierra Madre's could see some moderate snow fall along I-80 toward Cheyenne.






SO, How much SNOW are we talking about?  FYI, this is just one of many snow amount maps I look at to forecast with.   

--IF You look at the colortable, Casper could see 3-6" of snow, just in the city..and more possibly and up to 8" as you head closer in the Foothills.

-Sierra Madre's could easily see up to a Foot, but the Wind Rivers could see more with a Foot and a Half.








MORE TO COME...

12/11: CHRISTMAS SNEAK-PEEK...

HO-HO HO...

Can you believe that Christmas is 2 weeks away?!?!...snucked up on this guy fast!

Here is the Current Snow Depth across WY:

This time last year, more snow was on top of the Laramie on Casper Mountain.  Majority of the snow are found in the Sierra Madre's, Snowy's, Bighorns, Wind Rivers, and rest of Western WY. 

Before today: Casper's current snow depth was of 2-4"..should melt by Wednesday. 
Areas in GREEN shows more than 2' of snow depth. 

REMEMBER, 1" of Snow Depth determines a WHITE CHRISTMAS.


What does our CHRISTMAS EVE look like?

--GFS is the only long-range model out at this moment for me to work with, but showing Dry Conditions at this moment.

This is the 5PM Christmas Eve map showing temperatures around the 30°s for many spots, but Mild as compared to past Christmas's.







As for our CHRISTMAS...

HO HO HO! 

So far, no Snow, but staying Dry and Mild in the 30°s. 

SNOW LOVERS,  this is depressing and since our Current Snow depth is very low...it doesn't look like a White Christmas, though the weather map is white.






BUT, I do see something 'trying' to work in in Western ID.  This batch of moisture should approach Western WY the 27th in the Evening.  Should models speed up, we could see some snow for West of the Divide.

I'll keep you up to date until now through Christmas...

12/10: Tuesday's Outlook and preview on Wednesday

GOOD MONDAY Evening all!

What a Cold Weekend we endured here in WY, as some of us or a few spots got down in the -10°s for the Overnight. 
As for the Monday Overnight, a 'slight' improvement to 14° here in the Oil City.

TUESDAY:
Warming up above Freezing and near the mid-30°s, BUT the winds out of the SW will slowly kick back up; giving the wind chill in the 20°s.  SE WY ( Eastern Goshen/Laramie Counties could creep in the middle 40°s)

2PM NAM TUESDAY FORECAST TEMPS.

As for any Snow Chances, keeping the 'Best' chance in the Yellowstone Region and NW Mtns as a little disturbance will trickle through.  Here are the Forecast Temps and the Precip. Map (BELOW)

5 PM GFS PRECIP MAP

WEDNESDAY:  Thawing out even more East of the Divide nearing 40° in a few parts.  Keeping the breezy weather again, but NW WY will see a new disturbance push through from Eastern ID and SW Montana snaking in.  This will be a little stronger than Tuesday's, but the Wind River's could get in on this Snow.

2PM WEDNESDAY NAM PRECIP.

12/8: Saturday Morning Snow Talk... & Tribute to John Lennon

Good Saturday to Everyone!

Before I get to the Snow, I want to take time and pay my dues to the great John Lennon.  Lennon was assassinated on this date in 1980 in NYC at The Dakota by Mark David Chapman.  He was an idol to me growing up and an amazing voice for the Beatles and an activist in the Peace Movement.  Click HERE to see which song I picked as one of my Favorite Lennon songs.

SNOW TALK:
  1st Reports of the Snowfall from last night, in through this morning are coming in; and more is expected.

Click HERE for the Latest on the Snow Updates.

The RADAR (Above) shows that band of light snow pushing through the Bighorns and draping in the Bridger Mtns and near Riverton and South of Lander.  Reflectivity west of Casper is showing some precipitation around Hiland, but its not hitting the ground.  Should see some light snow showers coming in within a couple hours.  Up to an 1" is expected here in the city.

A PLETHORA of Advisories are out, but most of them will end in a few hours in NW WY.  Ahead of the Front, very blustery conditions again along the Wind Corridor in the Rattlesnake ranges and in the Shirley Basin, including the Southern Laramies.

This is out toward the Alpine Junction... Winter Wonderland for 'some' of us.  IF you are Traveling, drive safely on the bridges and overpasses and the secondary roads.

NEW UPDATE later.

12/6: Friday's Snow and WEEKEND Snow

Good Late Thursday to you all, but lets look forward to our Friday and this Weekend...very busy for this Meteorologist.

Here is the Hi-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model (HRRR) showing the this 1st Wave coming through giving some of light snow North of Casper and Riverton until 10 AM Friday.

--Not a big snow, but Light Snow for sure in the Yellowstone Region (not shown), Bighorns, and Black Hills. 

The Disturbance travels East along I-90 and just North of it in South Dakota and Central Minnesota.








NOT done yet, Our next wave (IMAGE BELOW) moves in from the West and ushers in more moisture for West of the Divide.  Casper will stay dry and cool in the 30s for Friday, but could see an another round of snow for the Bighorns again Friday Evening.

The 1st Wave will be long gone crossing into Minnesota and Northern Iowa where it will weaken.  Can't rule out an area of snow in the Sierra Madre's and Snowy's seeing light snow Friday Night.


Here is the RPM for 72-HRS out showing the total snow by Sunday Afternoon.  West of the Divide will see a good amount, but Wind Rivers and Bighorns could get a good dumping with possible upslope. 
What about Casper?...so far, Models are not fairing too well for us here.  Could see more than a few inches, if best, on top of the Mountain.

 

MAIN DISCUSSION:   I will be more concerned, not with the snow, but the Brutally Cold Temperatures along with it on Saturday Night.  Arctic Air will be sliding in from the North and IF the skies clear and HOW much snow, some spots will dip below-zero.

8AM SUNDAY MORNING TEMPS (NAM 0z Friday's Run)

 

12/4: Wednesday's Outlook

FIRST OFF,   Another Win for our Cowboys against the Redbirds of Illinois St!  Great defense and Free Throw shooting down the end continued our Undefeated Season.  For more INFO on the ballgame tonight,  Click > HERE


Weather Talk:

Continue with the Light Snow out West, but have backed off the Winter Storm Warnings for a few parts in the Valleys around Afton area.  Could see a few more Rain Droplets, than Snow.

Here is the RPM Accumulated Snowfall map showing that the Wind Rivers, Gros Ventres, Tetons and Southern Part of Yellowstone seeing the Higher Snow amounts for the next 27 Hrs through Wednesday Evening.

                  

 

As for the Snow fall that will continue in the West, this will be the LAST Warm Day for us here in Central and Eastern WY for a while. 

Nearing 60° on Wednesday here in Casper, but Far Eastern WY could see the low-middle 60°s from Newscastle-Lusk-Torrington-Cheyenne.

I did say, 'for a while', here is why...

Much 'Cooler' Weather will continue as Arctic Air will plunge in from our North.

--Thus Dropping our High Temps below average about 5-10° & Overnight Lows possibly back in the Single Digits to Lower Teens if we get a good snow pack on the Surface. 

--LOOKING AHEAD...As I see the area of Alaska below average, I think we may be in that COOLING trend for a few more weeks..we shall see what the Pacific looks like and trends.

More 'SNOW' and Looking toward Christmas!

Seeing  the Maps and Graphics I have made on Monday, it was a busy way to begin this long week.

Why 'long'?  Well, another wave of Disturbances will slide off of the Pacific and incorporate some South West flow ahead and some Cooler North West flow from Canada behind it.

This is the, 5-DAY HPC, SHOWN ABOVE, map showing you the amount of Precipitation, mainly snow in WY, we could see through Saturday Evening.  We will have waves of Low Pressure, but I don't see any possible Jet Stream energy with these as the bulk of the activity will remain to our West in Idaho and Montana. 
 If I am seeing this right, maybe .10"-.25" of QPF here in Casper. 

Majority of this will remain to our Higher Elevation in Western WY; why they are under a Winter Storm Watch through Wednesday Midnight.

NOAA's Winter Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) shows the amount of snow through Friday 2AM.  Western WY, Bighorns, Black Hills, and Sierra Madres will see a good chance of light snow.  Even a 'speck' could creep on Casper Mtn. 

CHRISTMAS LOVERS...Here is a great Map for y'all!

Remember...Snow Depth over 1" determines it to be a White Christmas.  With that being the case, Western Mtns, Wind Rivers, Bighorns. I'll be updating this Map about 2x a Week to see if 'Your' area will have a Bing Crosby Christmas (White Christmas)

 

HEAVY SNOW/ STRONG WINDS & A 'Pokes Win!

Before I get to today's Weather, something is brewing down in Laramie..

WYOMING defeated the CU Buffaloes down at the AA last night.  Click HERE for more.  Lets keep this season undefeated until Conference Play.

Okay,  Now its time for the Weather Briefing.  Let me go ahead and get to Central and Eastern WY.
Here are the Current Advisories for Snow/Wind for Sunday.

For the HIGH WIND WARNING, click HERE
--Side note:  It has been whistling as I have been typing this blog post.

For the WINTER STORM WARNING, click HERE.



Central and Eastern WY (Casper/Rawlins/Gillette/Lander) you know what I am talking about..Very Blustery.  Here is the forecasted 'gusts' at 2 PM.  Winds will remain sustained over 30mph through the rest of the day and early evening.

--Wind Rivers, Cody Foothills, Bighorns could see gusts at times over 70+ mph.

--Rawlins, and up to Casper is hazardous travel along WY 220 today and along I-80 to Laramie.

--Traveling to Gillette along WY 50 & 59 will be hazardous.




We are done with the Wind portion, but now lets set sail to the Snow out West.

Current 11AM Radar Image shows a break in the Snowfall, but MORE is expected should arrive from 2-5PM today.

Click HERE for the Updated Snow Totals after a small wave came through and dumped a few more inches earlier this Morning.



Here is the new 12z Run from the NAM showing the Snow filter in Western WY around 2 PM

--Snow Breaks loose West of the Divide, where the better moisture content is and Jet Energy is capable of producing Heavy Wet Snow.

--May take a little while for the Wind Rivers, since its just a little farther East.







Here is what the GFS looks like around 11PM Tonight:

--Snow will line up and could clip down toward Evanston and into the Salt Lake region.

As the system moves Eastward, could clip some moisture in the Bighorns, but with the wind and not as much Jet Energy, they could get choked off by the snow.  Still a chance of seeing light snow, though.

--Casper could still see that Mix for a brief moment late tonight, as the bulk of the snow will shift towards the Sierra Madre's.

AS FOR MONDAY,  Much Calmer but could still see a few lingering flurries in the Snowy Range and may slide in the Laramie's.

SNOW AMOUNTS & More Snow..plus, Windy WY Saturday

Good Saturday Folks!,

Don't forget...The 'Pokes are playing the Colorado Buffs tonight at 8PM on Root Sports.  Lets see if WY can take continue their undefeated season!
For a Preview of the Game, click HERE

NOW, onto the Weather..Here is the Advisory Map.

--WINTER STORM WARNING Continues through early Monday where FEET of Snow is still expected to fall.

--HIGH WIND WATCH along the Windy Corridor and along I-80 through the Passes in the Laramie's. This will be in advance of the Cold Front where we may see 50-70MPH gusts on Sunday.



I did say SNOW AMOUNTS in the Title, so here are the totals from Friday Evening through the Overnight.
Click >SNOW TOTALS: 1ST Round  for more.

Current Radar is showing the next wave coming in now..and continuing through the evening.

--West>East Flow is in good favor of Moderate Snow amounts currently in the Tetons, Togwotee area.  Moisture could creep up and start spreading North around the Jenny Lake area.  Plus, Northern Lincoln Co. is getting some light snow.







Here is the GFS for Sunday's Final Wave of Moisture; which I think could be the strongest.

--From 11AM through the Overnight,  Significant Snowfall is expected all along the Western WY Ranges.

--Through the Overnight, the moisture shifts East and could clip the Bighorns and Sierra Madre's.
As I say this, the GFS & EURO agree on that solution, but the NAM doesn't agree.

-Keep an Eye on this as it progresses.




IF ANY CHANGES, I'll keep you updated.

WEEKEND SNOW STORM FOR WESTERN WY

Friday...whew!...we are done for the week guys!  Now, for the majority of us, East of the Divide, hope you held onto your caps since it was breezy and balmy. 

Rest of the Weekend for East of the Divide (Casper/Riverton/Cheyenne, etc.)
  -- Continuing with the Balmy and Mild Temperatures that will remain Unseasonably Warm that'll be 15-20°s Above Normal.  PLUS, winds will be over 20mph + sustained, but BLUSTERY for Sunday as the Front approaches.  Could see High Wind Warnings in effect.


SNOW TALK: 

Snows from Friday Night and Early Saturday is about to tapper off and here are the Unofficial Reports I have seen so far:

Jackson Hole Ski Resort ~ 3-7"
Brooks Lake ~ 3" 
Togwotee ~ 1-2"

Next Wave of Moisture arrives here later in the day on Saturday and sticks with us through the Evening and Overnight hours.

--GFS is a little more South than the NAM with their Snow into Lincoln Co. and stretching up in the YNP region.  Could see a little big slide into the Wind River's.   

--We'll see how this pans out.




SUNDAY looks to be the best Moisture-Laden disturbance, meaning more intense snowfall rates.

-- Bright Greens show very strong Precipitation and pending on how warm we get in the Valleys, it could start as a Rain>to a Mix> and then ALL Snow as the Front creeps in. 

--GFS is better than the NAM with Light Snow in the Bighorns and Sierra Madre's and could clip in to SweetWater County. 

** As for Casper/Riverton-- Remaining Blustery and Dry through 11 PM Sunday Night.




MONDAY MORNING:

--See how there is 'split flow'?  One band of Moisture is to the North in the Bighorns and approaching the Black Hills and the OTHER is along I-80?  That Strong SW flow of winds could rip the storm apart as it crosses East of the Divide, limiting the Snow Chances for Casper.

--All of this should deteriorate when Monday Mid-day passes.





TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS from the RPM Model:

Some could be enhanced with some Rainfall, keep in mind.

I'll be Updating this Saturday Afternoon and see where we are with Snow Amounts and Tally's!


As I Mentioned, some could see FEET of Snow. 

FRIDAY'S OUTLOOK and FEET of 'Snow'?

Lets get right down to it 'Folks.

Nothing too special for East of the Divide except Carbon-Copy temperatures on tap like it has been for the past several days in the 50°s and nearing 60° in SE Wyoming.

As for West of the Divide, a Different story; periods of Snow.  Last Night's was a weak event with a Few Inches fallen around Old Faithful.

Here is Friday Night's Setup:

--After copious amounts of Rain in the valleys of Idaho, comes the Deluge of Heavy snow for Friday Night.  Several Inches are possible with this wave, but its not going to be a very cold and powdery snow.  Just a thick, wet heavy snow.








May squeeze out some Moisture from this for the Wind Rivers and into Sweetwater County, but everywhere else in WY is very Dry.

Here are the Snowfall Accumulations for the next 72 Hours..Some is a little overdone, as some of this could be in the type of Rain.

- I mentioned tonight about 'gargantuan' amounts and Earlier how Western WY is in Winter Storm Watch?   Here you go.  Bighorns could see at least a few inches when Sunday Night rolls around, though. 

FEET OF SNOW...  Somewhere between 2-3' is possible.







I'll Talk more about this later on Friday! 

THURSDAY's OUTLOOK

Thursday looks to be another Carbon-Copy day from Wednesday in regards to the Temperatures.

As for the Precipitation, a Wintry Mix will drape through Western WY for the Overnight Hours, but then a change to all snow will slide in and start filtering in all of the WY Western Ranges before dawn. 

--RPM Model at 3AM shows the snow to start filling in, moderate intensity at times, in the Wind Rivers and Tetons. 

NOT a big snow, but could cause some slick spots if going over the Passes.







Snow continues in the early Afternoon hours, but should taper off after 3PM.  A few flurries could still fly around and linger.

As I mentioned Above, Not a Big Snow with this Disturbance.  Through this week, we will have several arrive from our West.  Our Next one should arrive by Friday Night..as for this storm, here are expect totals generated by the RPM Model.

WEDNESDAY OUTLOOK

  Much Warmer for our Tuesday for Central/Southern WY as the upper 40°s took shape and far Eastern WY were felt in the 50°s.

Here is what you can expect for Wednesday:

Temperatures will try to climb in the Middle 50°s in Central WY, but 60°s could be felt in SE WY around Cheyenne and Torrington.

As Wednesday will 'wind' down to a close, A new system will approach Western WY late Wednesday Night into early morning hours on Thursday.  Don't expect too much with this one, as the dynamics aren't looking too impressive as the main impacts could be a few inches of snow in the Higher Elevations.

--No Impacts for East of the Divide for WY, as the system will fall apart and clouds will filter in on Thursday.  Could be a 'touch' cooler with that patchy cloud cover.







As I Mentioned, not a Big snow, but Teton Pass could see maybe 2-4" and a few inches elsewhere in the white.

HAVE A GREAT TUESDAY & I will start dissecting our 'lack of snowfall' beginning tomorrow.

-Mike