Friday, December 21, 2012

12/21: Christmas Snow Potential

HAPPY 1ST DAY OF WINTER, first off!

Don't forget this will be the shortest day of sunlight for the year with us getting only 9 Hours and 33 Minutes.  We will start gaining an extra minutes of sunlight beginning on Christmas Eve.  By the Way, since the Southern Hemisphere is in Summer now, Sydney, Australia is forecasted near 80° on Monday!


Anyway, lets get to this SNOW Potential when Monday comes into picture:
 1st Off, talk about the LACK of snow Central and Eastern WY is experiencing so far, as compared to Western WY.
Colors in the Purple show 30-70" of snow fall depth, while Dubois, the Basins, and rest of Central WY is barren.  This 'could' change when Monday rolls around.


Before I get to MONDAY, there are chances of Snow for West of the Divide for Sunday Morning.

-- Bulk of the Snow will remain in Western WY around the Tetons and YNP.  Portions of the Star Valley could see some light snow through the day on Sunday, too. 

--Otherwise, East of the Divide, Dry/Breezy and Sunny weather continues for the rest of the Weekend.





CHRISTMAS EVE:  Things start to get unsettled when Low Pressure will eject out of the Pacific Coast as a Trough will dig in the Great Basin and moisture will begin to feed into the Rockies.  BUT, I do think a Surface Low could form and give some upslope conditions with moderate snow East of the Divide.

Here is what Each Model Shows for Monday Evening... 

NAM 5PM CHRISTMAS EVE                          















GFS 5PM CHRISTMAS EVE















EURO 5PM CHRISTMAS EVE


















As you can see, the NAM/GFS is liking the snow to slowly pick up here in Casper and up along I-25.  Here is what the 8PM Image looks like from the NAM.

--Intense Snow trying to build in for Central WY, thus this is where the up slope can pile up.  Moderate to Heavy snow could occur, IF this holds up.









NOW, here is what the models are showing it at 11PM Christmas Eve Night:
11PM NAM CHRISTMAS EVE
















11PM GFS CHRISTMAS EVE















Looking like 'Ole St. Nick will be quite snowy making his routes through WY to deliver his presents to all the good boys & girls.

GFS CHRISTMAS MORNING

--Christmas Morning and we'll continue with the light snow and snow showers from Casper and points West.  Otherwise, moderate snow possibly in the Black Hills, and the Eastern 1/3 of the State. 

Sierra Madre's could see some moderate snow fall along I-80 toward Cheyenne.






SO, How much SNOW are we talking about?  FYI, this is just one of many snow amount maps I look at to forecast with.   

--IF You look at the colortable, Casper could see 3-6" of snow, just in the city..and more possibly and up to 8" as you head closer in the Foothills.

-Sierra Madre's could easily see up to a Foot, but the Wind Rivers could see more with a Foot and a Half.








MORE TO COME...

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