Tuesday, February 25, 2014

2/25: One SNOW System down, TWO more to go in WY

Tuesday's System caused a few Headaches in Central & Southeastern WY.  Quick burst of snow moved through Late Morning and cleared up late this Afternoon as bulk of the Snow will fall in the Southeast.  Snow should taper off by 8PM later this Evening near Cheyenne.  

SNOW REPORTS SO FAR as of 6PM:
 * When all is said and done with by Late this Evening, could expect another Inch or Two in the Southeast in a few Isolated spots from the Heavier Bands.









COLD EVENING once again for much of WY as High Pressure brings Arctic Air through the Overnight. Bundle Up if your going out and bring in the Pets.


MID-WEEK:
 *  Wednesday and Thursday (Day) looks to be fairly tranquil in our Weather Pattern across WY as we will stay Dry and Above Avg. for Temperatures. Yes, the Wind will stick around so watch for the Blowing Snow on the Highways & Interstates.  When THURSDAY EVENING rolls around, that is when we'll see our Next Ssytem slide in from California. By the Way, this is Plentiful Moisture for Drought-Stricken CA! 

* You can tell how these Lows or Systems are lining off the Pacific and moving through the Basins.  

* A Cold Front will sag Late Thursday through Friday along the I-25 Corridor as the High stays put meaning the Moisture can't move East into the Dakota's.  Upslope Flow is likely with the Northeast/East wind flow can pile up the Snow in the Mountains.





FRIDAY:
  I think there will be several periods of Light to Moderate SNOW for much of Central & Eastern WY.  Can't forget how the I-80 Corridor will be impacted early in the day too. The Front stalls with some Upper Level Dynamic from the Jet Stream and forcing of some Upslope.  As we head into Late Friday, Our NEXT round of Moisture funnels off the Coast of CA into the Basins again.



SATURDAY:  This is when the Conditions may become very Hazardous for much of WY.  A very complex and dynamic storm will feed into WY where Moderate to Heavy Snow is possible for Central/S'Eastern WY as early as in the Morning.  A re-inforcement shot of Cold Air with a Surface dropping down will interact with the Moisture from the West.  A strong Low will form in ID and a Trough could drape along Southern WY.   Dynamics look to in-paced for a long duration of Big Snow from the Morning to Evening. A 2nd surge on late Saturday could funnel in. We have to watch closely on the Cold Air on the back side and where the Boundary is in placed. Colder Temps than forecast can sometimes Dry out some of the Atmosphere.



EARLY THOUGHTS:  Since some of the SNOW Amount Models are overlapping Tuesday's Storm for our upcoming late Week-Weekend Snows, hard to get a grasp of just How Much is still possible. I do think some spots of the Lower Elevations can likely see Double-Digit Amounts from Friday through Sunday.  This will likely be the 1st Storm of 2014 to impact Central WY pretty well with Snow Amounts.  Advisories are very likely so its very crucial to stay up with this storm each Day.  Any slight deviation of Moisture, Track and Colder Air will impact who can see what or How Much.

Also to Note is if you can see, I used the GFS Model Data on this Storm.  The Three Long Range Guidance Models (EURO/GFS/CANADIAN) do show these storms very consistent with one another.  We will closely watch IF they stay in that same pattern or if 'one' Model shows something different. 

-ms

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