Wednesday's Forecast

It is now the middle of the week, and we have survived the 'cold' wave of Temperatures and the snow.  Just getting better from here on out through the rest of the week!

2PM NAM PRECIP MAP

-  A Tranquil Wednesday for Central and Eastern WY with Westerly flow with sunny, but breezy at times, conditions.

-BUT, Wintry Conditions will remain and continue for the Western portions of the Divide in WY as a disturbances will supply light snow for the Tetons/ Gros Ventre parts.  A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued until Wednesday at 5PM.

NAM 2PM WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES

- Seasonable Temperatures in the middle 40°s here in Casper and lower 40°s for Riverton on Wednesday.  Could see a few more 50°s, though, in Eastern WY around Newscastle down to Torrington and Cheyenne.

NAM HI RES 60 HR SNOWFALL POTENTIAL

-Can't leave it out, but we DO have a snow chance like I mentioned earlier.  Will leave the higher snow totals in the Tetons and Gros Ventre regions. 

Wind Rivers and Bighorns 'could' pick up a couple inches, but it will remain mainly in the higher elevation of Western WY.











WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK..The Post will be up in the next day or so as John and I came together and discussed our thoughts this past weekend..

COOOOLD Monday, but Any Relief for Tuesday?

Good Evening Folks!

I don't know which is worse; the strong winds or just the cold temperatures?..maybe BOTH!
Do have to say it is taking a while to adjust to these winds, more than the Temperatures.  How was everyone's Weekend?  Feel free to chime in!

A Few Disturbances have been filtering along the Northern Rockies and sweeping into ID/MT and nudging South Eastward in NW WY.  Low Pressure will be forming as this first batch will come and another one is forming behind it.  Majority of the moisture will remain in the Western 1/3 of the State with Light Snow.  If you not going to see snow, dry but windy conditions will continue as High Pressure will generate Westerly and Southerly winds along the Wind Corridor of  I-80.

Temperatures won't 'budge' too much for Tuesday.  Slightly warmer near 40° here in Casper, but pockets of cooler Temperatures West of the Divide.  All across the High Plains, it'll be a cool day all around as a Trough dug in cooling off the majority of the country.

Wind Corridor from Rock Springs to Rawlins and up Casper will continue to be breezy with sustained winds over 20 throughout the day.  Say 'THANK YOU' to that High Pressure and Low Pressure being sort of close to each other making that pressure gradient brisk at times with those cool temperatures. 

60 HOUR Snowfall Map from the NAM HI-RES shows 'light' snowfall potentially for the next couple of days. 
Monday Night:  Could see a few flakes here in Casper ontop of the Mountain, and the Bighorns could see up to a couple inches or so.   Majority of the energy will remain in Western WY along the Wind Rivers, Salts, Tetons, and just East of the Absaroka's near YNP.  Over the next 'several' days, over a half a foot of snow could accumulate along the ID/WY line. 



So for now, I want to remind you to bundle up and turn on those furnaces/space heaters cause it'll stay chilly with those howling winds for the next couple days.  LEAST Forget, we have a Meteor Shower coming up this Saturday Night!..This is the Leonid Meteor Shower.

SUNDAY: Cold Start, but 'some' improvement later in Week.

Good Morning Folks!

I hope you all survived the night, but today will be when the winds start to pick up; creating the Wind Chills very brisk. 

Here are the Lows from this Morning from the NWS out of Riverton:

AFO  : AFTON           12   
BPI  : BIG PINEY        5
BYG  : BUFFALO      -3
CPR  : CASPER         -8
COD  : CODY             0
DUBOIS                      3
EVANSTON               7
FORT BRIDGER       10 
GILLETTE                 -3
GREYBULL              -7
JAC  : JACKSON      7
YELLOWSTONE     -4
LND  : LANDER        3
PNA  : PINEDALE     1
POY  : POWELL        1
RIW  : RIVERTON     1
RKS  : ROCK SPRINGS      13
SHR  : SHERIDAN           -3
WRL  : WORLAND      -9

SATURDAY EVENING: SNOW TOTALS and Cold Evening in Store

GOOD 'FRIGID' Evening to All in WYOMING.

Was Casper and some parts in Central and Southern WY in the 60°s at one point? 
The Powerful Cold Front swept through and now the Cold Air is in place.  Before I get tonight's cold air...we had snow here in the state!..Some saw a good amount, but rest of us got slim pickings.

Here is a Map of the snow totals from the Riverton NWS

-  Bighorns and the Wind River's got the Big Snow's, which I forecasted.

- I mentioned Thursday Night about Rock Springs/Green River area of seeing a little more?..Sure Did!..Jet Stream Band went right through them.

Here is a LINK how much everyone else got...(scroll down to the bottom of the page) SNOW TOTALS

--I mentioned last night how treacherous the Roads and Conditions were to the North in the Bighorns up in Sheridan...Big Snow was up there.  Here is how much they and the rest of Southern MT faired.

AS FOR TONIGHT...If Your still up..YOU can feel it..Good Side, no Wind Chill.  Clear Skies and High Pressure building in is sinking the air and dropping the TEMPERATURES.

COLD MORNING to start off your Sunday, so Bundle Up if going out and about.  Continuing w/ the Cold Conditions, but Windy.  Westerly Winds will increase our Wind Chill factor.  IF any Snow, it will be a slight chance to our South in the Snowy/Sierra's in Carbon Co.

STAY WARM FOLKS!

EARLY THURSDAY: SNOW UPDATE & Steve Miller Band???

GOOD EARLY MORNING FOLKS,

Song of the Day...sounds fitting, but some great 'Snowy/Wintry' Music:
STEVE MILLER BAND "WINTERTIME"

Thursday was cool with a Cold Front pushing through, but we will remain Mild and Breezy East of the Divide with Heavy Snow at times starting to develop in Western WY..




Here is a the Jet Stream Energy that will be over running with moisture/energy through WY and especially SW WY.  We will have a Jet Streak of near 120kts that will also make it gusty ahead of the front.  This Jet Streak could give moisture in SW WY near Sweetwater County.

Newest NAM Model Run (6z) Came down tonight and see 2 streaks of moisture.  The Band in SW WY could give Sweetwater a good band of Isentropic Lift and moisture band for a couple hours from 5PM-11PM.   An Another band could form South of Rawlins and could give Casper a chance for a good band, but it could climb as far North in Rawlins and the Sierra's...So far, just a light snow event.

-- Most of the Moisture will still remain in the Higher Elevations in Bighorns and Wind Rivers/Absaroka's/YNP where the center of the Upper Low will swing through from Idaho..then North WY and into MT. 

-PLUS, a Surface Low will strengthen South of WY, giving Heavy Snow in the Sierra Madre's of West Central CO.  ...THUS, Casper and East of the Divide gets lucked out.

--RPM In-House Model of the WSI has Patchy Snow Accumulations in WY..Higher amounts remain in the Higher Elevations, still.

Casper/Riverton~ 1-3"
Sweetwater Co. (Rock Springs/Green River) ~ 2-5"
Owl Creeks/Bridger Mtns ~ 3-6" 
Wind Rivers~ 8-14"   (SW facing slopes could see a little more, though)


THOUGHTS:..Higher Terrain out toward Bighorns/ and rest of the Mountains out West will a majority of the Snowfall, BUT, really concerned where that 'streak' of snow could form and set up shop..If So, Moderate to Heavy Snow could fall.

WEEKEND SNOW UPDATE: Late Wednesday Edition

Good 'Late' Evening Folks,

If you are up and reading this, you are crazy like me and a Weather Nerd OR just a Night Owl.

When I used to blog for my Other Weather Site, I used to put out a song to 'lighten' up the crowd..so for tonight..I will introduce you Warren Zevon.  Werewolves of London

So, lets get the Meat and Potatoes of the Model Runs and then the Dessert w/ the Snowfall Amounts.

1) EURO-  The European Model has been consisted with the runs, but if Casper or Riverton OR SW WY get snow, it will be along this strip of moisture late Friday into Early Saturday and then continue some light snow through the day on Saturday.  PLUS, the EURO likes the Bighorns and Northern Mtn's for a big snowfall event for them.

Tonights 0z European Run at 11PM FRIDAY

2) GFS-  The GFS Model from tonight is still wanting to show that Streak like the EURO as well, but not as intense.  It shows a good band for Sweetwater Co. and just South of Riverton, but hardly anything for Casper.  It expands a little more West of Casper, but it remains filled with Moisture for the Wind Rivers/Absaroka's and the Bighorns. GFS however, likes light snow to remain in place for all of WY through Saturday Evening.

0z GFS valid at 5PM FRIDAY.

3) NAM:  The NAM for some odd reason is just really lenient with the snowfall amount for WY; especially in Casper and Riverton.  May see a little patch of light snow and much slower in the progress of the snowfall.  What I have NOT said tonight is that MT will see the Upper Level Low Moisture, but a Surface Low will Develop South of WY into CO and they could see the Heavier amount of snow...meaning, WY is left out and Sandwiched
 Back to NAM..what is interesting with the NAM is on Saturday, it re-energizes itself and moisture is supplied giving another day of decent snow rates at times across WY.

0z NAM valid for 8PM FRIDAY

0z NAM valid for 5PM FRIDAY

So, there you have it...the Meat and Potatoes...
HERE is Something that may be interested...
- The HPC (Hydro Prediction Center) forecasted their QPF (Quantitative Precip. Forecast) charts through Sunday and look what they did for WY..

-What does this mean?...UPPER LOW has Moisture for MT..and Surface Low in CO...By Sunday, that Surface Low leaves CO and gains Gulf of Mexico moisture...creating a SEVERE WEATHER Outbreak...







AND NOW.... Snowfall Maps!

-First up,  the WSI In-House Model showing heavy Snow for Wind Rivers and Wasatch..and all of Northern MT.  Light Snow for Bighorns/ Snowy Ranges..

As For Casper/Riverton..maybe 1-3" and CASPER MTN..2-4".








-GFS through 120 HOURS Monday at 5PM.

Big Snow for Wind Rivers, Absaroka's and Bighorns.  Note how Riverton and Casper is in the Doughnut Hole?.. :(

-NAM through 84 HOURS through 5AM SUNDAY.

**Remember, NAM likes that snow to stick around Casper and Eastern WY a little while longer.

BIG SNOW for Wind Rivers and Nice Size in the Snowy/Sierra Range and into the Bighorns.





I hope this is not an overwhelming Blog Post, but its very in-depth and informative. I will intend to keep it this way..helps YOU the viewer to be Aware what 'could' happen from ALL ANGLES...Each Storm system is different and unique.

TUESDAY PM: Snow still not out of the Question this Weekend

Good Tuesday Evening.  Just still waiting for that great weather for our Wednesday.  My previous post discussed about the upcoming weather for tomorrow.

Lets get tonight's Model Runs from the GFS/NAM for this weekend's Snow Potential.


-Friday will start out Mild, but cooler as our Precipitation should start out at all Rain in the day...then as the evening progresses, the Rain will change to a Snow then an All-Snow through the late Evening and Overnight.
 

-NAM 11PM FRIDAY:  A Streak of moisture is shooting through all of WY and the 540 Line (Freezing Line) is right through Central WY.  Showing Light snow and slightly heavier just North of Casper into the Bighorns. 

-NAM 5AM SATURDAY:  Still showing a batch of Moisture as the Low is sitting in place and giving some Moderate Snow in the Wind Rivers and Owl Creeks. 










-GFS 5AM SATURDAY:  Now, the GFS is liking the Low to Track a little more into Northern WY and showing not as much Moisture through Saturday.  GFS is favoring more with MT in the higher snowfall amounts and Northern Bighorns with snow in WY. 

-Plus, look at CO, where the 'new' Surface Low will form that could bring Severe Weather to the Midwest later.  That could be the 'other' place of snow to develop. 

IF THIS HAPPENS:  WY will be sandwiched in the middle=  Not as much Snow for WY.




Enough with the "Weathery Analysis", Now lets get to the SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS...

-SREF (Short-Range Ensemble Forecast) THROUGH 5AM SATURDAY

I am thinking they are going with that GFS Model Solution..showing heavy Snow amounts to our North/South; leaving WY in the doughnut hole.

GFS 120-HR SNOWFALL ACCUM.:  As you can see, Higher Elevations in the Absaroka's/Owl Creeks/Bighorns could see the higher amounts.

Sad thing, Montana could see up to 2' of snow in a few parts.

Remember, this is the Earl Barker Snow site.  It could be a little too-well overdone with amounts.  See how Riverton and Casper is in a doughnut hole with snow??

NAM 84-HR SNOWFALL ACCUM:
This is the Newest Model Run from the NAM just released tonight and shows a promising amount..about 2-3" near Casper.

Wind Rivers could be on the higher snow, including the Southern Bighorns. 







THOUGHTS SO FAR?...It is still too early to say 'Who' will see 'What' amount, but there is still a lot of time before Now 'thru Friday.  I will keep you monitored on the latest for tomorrow's Runs.