Folks,
Before I get to my mumbo-jumbo talk about Weather..here is a great laugh you all will love. This guy is really good at forecasting, where I get my Inspiration :)
CHRIS FARLEY IS EL NINO
It it is that time of the year to start planning how our Winter will shape up, as we are now in full swing of Fall across WY and as the the leaves are now falling off the trees and darkness comes much faster after Daylight Saving Time has ended.
Remember, the
Meteorological Winter starts on December 1st, while the '
official' start begins on
December 21st; which is the shortest day of the year and least amount of sunlight.
TAKING A LOOK BACK AT 2011
Before we get to
THIS YEAR's outlook, lets look at last years Winter here in Casper and other surrounding areas here in WY.
It was a very
warm and
rainy Summer for many of us in 2011, but it stayed wet and warm for October and November. When mid-November came around it dried up a little bit and then turned cold into December. When 2012, came around everywhere across the country got Warmer than average. WY plagued victim to it and warm Temperatures lasted through April. Not just warm, Dry conditions increased and that has lead us to an Above Normal Drought conditions for the summer.
-
Image (Left) shows the Extreme Drought along the Basins from Big Horn and stretching down towards Fremont to Sweetwater Counties. Extreme Drought conditions in Eastern WY and an Exceptional Drought is still persisting in Niobrara and Goshen Counties; including Converse & Weston Co.'s
-
Image (Right) shows how Dry it has remained out in the Inner Mountain West and including the Rockies. Denver did see good snowfall for the winter this year, but very WARM conditions persisted and dry conditions persisted with Extreme Fire for CO (Colorado Springs and Northern regions)
DON'T FORGET, here in WY we had the Fotennelle, Sheep Herder Hill (Casper), Gilead and many other fires to deal with; not including the Smoke from the fires in OR and ID that was blowing during the Summer.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS since January 1st:
Casper: 7.33" (-4.32") Should be ~ 11.65"
Riverton: 2.87" (-5.98") Should be ~ 8.85"
SNOW TOTALS FOR 2011/2012
Casper: 52.4" (Avg. ~ 75")
Riverton: 20.4 (Avg. ~ 37") ** Numbers based on a 30 YR Avg. from 1980-2010
(Source: NWS Riverton)
SO FAR FOR 2012: (
OCTOBER SNOW TOTALS)
Riverton: 3.2" ~ +.7" Above Normal (Downtown Obs.)
Casper: 5.2" ~ -1.9" Below Normal (Airport Obs.)
Cheyenne: 10.2" ~ 5" Above Normal
Laramie: 10.8" ~ 3.3" Above Normal
** I, personally, can attest we have had about up to 8-10" in the city of Casper with our 1st big snow in 2nd Week and that next 3-4" the next week and then about an 1" on that Friday of the last week in October.
EL NINO & LA NINA Weather Pattern Setups
-(EL NINO) ~ Refers to the abnormal warming of sea surface water in the Central Pacific off the South American coast. Plus, Warm Air resides along the Northern 1/3 of the US (inc. WY) as Low Pressure resides off the coast in the Pacific..
-(LA NINA) ~ Refers to the cooling of the Pacific Coast Waters, but Wet conditions along the Northwest. Cooler Air dives in from the Aleutian Coast of Alaska and digs into British Columbia with a Blocking High off the Pacific.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE'S AND EL-NINO
One thing to wonder if we will either have an
El Nino OR not is to look at the Sea Surface Temperatures off the Pacific. Here is what they currently look like:
-And as you can see, Temperatures have been quite Warm off the Mexican Coast and continuing to be warm West of Hawaii..
What does this mean???...Shows signs of a weak El Nino Developing.
-What is this? (Image Right) El Nino is set up into 4 Different Regions and this can allow climatologists and meteorologists determine the strength and fluctuations with each region with the El Nino.
- And here are the four different regions of the Sea Surface Temperatures of the Pacific Ocean that show the temperatures of the El Nino.
Colors in
Orange represent Warmer Temps and
Blue represents Cooler; thus anything above a '0' means its a warmer than cooler phase.
Nino 1+2 & Nino 3 are the same, but about Equal Change and Neutral, but farther West you go out in the Pacific (NINO 3.4 & 4), Much Warmer.
REMEMBER:Warmer the Sea Surface Anomalies get, the Stronger the El Nino could get..
What does this mean for WYOMING??? So far, it shows a Warmer and staying dry Winter.
TELECONNECTIONS (AO/NAO/PNA/AAO)
What are Teleconnections? Its actually a very important tool to help forecast a weather pattern. Here is the actual definition from the Climate Prediction Center: Teleconnection: refers to a
recurring and persistent, large-scale pattern of pressure and circulation anomalies that
spans vast geographical areas. Teleconnection patterns are also referred to as preferred
modes of low-frequency (or long time scale) variability.
Another Thing: These variables could persist for a long period of time, too.
AO- Arctic Osciallation
AAO- Antarctic Oscillation
NAO- North Atlantic Osciallation
PNA- Pacific North American Pattern
I will show you each one, but it may be Very Confusing. Each Teleconnection could correspond with another one, remember that.
If the NAO/AO are both Positive or 'Above' 0..that can show you a Warm Temperature and Ridging of High Pressure building...BUT, if they are NEGATIVE, that shows you a Dip of the Jet Stream with Cold Arctic Air
WHAT EACH COMPANIES AND WEATHER SERVICES ARE THINKING???
LIVE WEATHER BLOGS show a Warm Winter with Near Normal Snowfall
WEATHER RISK Shows the coldest and snowiest weather to the Western 1/3 of the US
NOAA is Trending Warmer and Dry with better Precipitation changes along the North of us into MT.
**PLUS, The Farmers Almanac is keeping the Inner Mountain West Warm and equal chances of precipitation and snowfall for each half of WY; with a little more snow potential for SW WY (Sweetwater & Uinta Counites).
KEEP IN MIND, they were spot on for last years prediction of having the majority of the country warm, and dry but didn't know just how warm it did get "Season w/o a Winter"
(
TOP) Images show the Climate Outlook from NOAA showing you the
3-Month Outlook from January to March and showing you the VERY Warm Temperatures remaining in control in the Central Rockies, including WY. West of the Mississippi River will remain Warm and as far North into Northern MT.
Precipitation wise, Equal Chances of Normal Snow/Rain, but could be a Dry Pacific NW and Wet SE Coast.
CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN: For the past couple months, we have seen a copious amount of Pacific Coast Moisture and pushing to the East into Idaho/MT and into Western WY. Tremendous amounts of Rainfall/Snowfall in Yellowstone/Wind Rivers/Tetons and then after it Crosses the Divide into the Basins....poof! This also is an occurrence for the Bighorn Mountains, too. Its gone, just clouds and wind and cooler air retreating down the mountain. Then, Low Pressure 'tries' to form as it gathers energy and dynamics hundreds of miles from the mountain into the Midwest. Rain chances go from "Likely" > "Slight". WHY is that? This is known as
Orographic Rainfall. Here is a Map showing you
.
FINAL THOUGHTS FROM JOHN SHRABLE AND I
Both of us got together recently and shared/collaborated ideas of what we think 'could' and what will happen. John thinks that the Jet Stream will remain quite North of us into MT and giving them a better chance of Precipitation and feels the Warm Air will stick around.
John and I Both agree on that we will see
periods of Low Pressure spinning off the Pacific Coast and will interact some energy and give us Snow chances, but not as much as we have seen in years past...like Winter 2009/2010. The Normal Area's that get more snow than other places will see the snow, but keep an eye on the Temperatures during our 7-Day Forecasts...Watch the Almanac and see where we are with the High/Low and compared to the Normal.
LATELY, we have been Warm about
5° Above Normal and slightly a little more than that.
SO WHAT DO WE THINK.....?
After our thoughts and agreement, we are going for a
WEAK EL NINO. I do think the Pacific waters will remain slightly warmer than average and continue this Warm Weather pattern, until a shot of Cold air comes down from Canada.
SNOWFALL, should be less than average here in Casper & Riverton, but still continue the Heavy Snows out in Western WY.
REMEMBER, We are Already 2" Below Normal to begin October in Casper and already in November, we are Below.
NORMAL NOVEMBER SNOWFALL: -Casper: 12.0" -Riverton: 5.0" -Cheyenne: 8"
ONE LAST THOUGHT:
You can attest me on this, but it is very challenging to forecast here in this state. John and I are pretty accurate with Temperatures and Precipitation for the 7-days and up to 10 with latest Weather Models we forecast with, including weather patterns and steering flow from different levels of the Atmosphere.
We May be Completely Wrong OR completely Right with these predictions. This is why its called Climate...climate Changes every second, but we will continue to FORECAST the best of our ability day in-day out.
HAPPY WINTER!
Mike and John
