1/9: SNOW TALK...Wednesday Edition

Evening Folks,

Wednesday lived up to be a 'gusty' day for the majority along all the Wind Corridors, especially here in Casper. 

NOW, lets get to this Snow Event on tap for Thursday.

THURSDAY 11PM;  TONIGHT'S GFS RUN

--Light to Moderate (at times) Snow should start to fill in West of the Divide by 11PM Thursday Night, behind the front with Isentropic Lift; moisture over-running on top of moisture.

--East of the Divide; Looking Dry and Windy for many of us along the Front.  Bighorns could see some light snow 'trying' to fall.

FRIDAY 5AM; TONIGHT'S GFS RUN

--5AM Friday shows the snow starting to spread farther East and into the Bighorns and nosing around Gillette, too.

--Banding of Moderate Snow could be in SW WY around Evanston, circulating around that LOW.  

--I think Casper/Riverton could see a few flurries start to fly around, but I think it'll take a longer time cause of how Dry our Humidity and Dewpoints will be.

11AM FRIDAY; TONIGHT'S GFS

--SURFACE Low Strengthens into a tight 992 Low in NE CO...thus, this is showing signs STILL producing Up-Slope in the Wind Rivers, Central WY and in East-Central WY.  

--Bighorns still looking at Moderate Snow potential.

--Cheyenne, this will be the time when they'll be getting on the Snow..while Sierra Madre's are under a Winter Storm Watch, by the Way.

2PM FRIDAY; TONIGHT'S NAM

--HOWEVER,  This is completely different.  

This is the NAM at 2PM.  Snow is MUCH lighter for majority of WY, but that Low could deepen to 992MB and snow on the back side.  This is where the Black Hills could see 'significant' snow...over a FOOT. 

--By Friday Evening, SNOW could still sag along Central WY. 

--Nice Banding could show up late afternoon and early evening in the Black Hills and along Central SD.

As we approach later Friday Night, snow should still stick around, but get lighter in amounts and snow rates...flurries are possible through the overnight.


THERE YOU HAVE IT...




NOW, on to Snow Maps and Amounts:

-Last Night's Meteogram showing Snow Amounts for Casper....  4-7"



 

- TONIGHT'S is Different:   2.5-5"

Note how the NAM is not picking up what the GFS is liking..?

TONIGHT'S RPM at 11PM shows less snow from last night's runs for Central WY.  If I could ballpark it, I say Casper could see 2-5" out of this.  Western WY could see easily up to a Foot, while Bighorns may see 6-10".  WY Black Hills could see the same..BUT I do think the majority of the snow will be East of WY in South Dakota and farther Northeast in ND.


THIS IS FROM THE GFS SNOW AMOUNT MAP:

--IF the track takes this way...looking about a solid 6-10" for Casper and 6-8" for Riverton

--Over a foot for West of the Divide and Wind Rivers and possibly North of Douglas and Black Hills Region.  

JUST A WAITING GAME...




AND NOW, THE NAM SNOW MAP:

-- MUCH LESS in the amounts here for Central WY.. Casper could see maybe 1-4" on this and Riverton maybe 2-5"

--Not Shown, but the NAM painted about 10-18" for the Black Hills









THURSDAY, I will be spitting out my 'Final Thoughts' as I will be making my Snow Amount Map for WY and 'who' could be the winner for Snowfall...STAY TUNED...

1/8: SNOW TALK

Good 'Late' Tuesday to all, since the show has ended, its now time to focus on the Special Blog Post in regards to the Snow Potential Thursday Night/Friday.

BEFORE the Snow, Lets enjoy another day on Wednesday with High's climbing in the upper 30° and 40°s for Central WY.  Winds will stay brisk again from the Southwest, but that's an ordinary day here in WY.


SNOW TALK:

Lets 1st look at the amount of Moisture we are capable seeing with this for the next several days to come.

--Looks like the Miss/TN Valley's could see copious amounts of rain ranging about 2-7", all the way up to KY.

--Closer to Home, enough moisture here for snowfall...where Central WY could see .25-.50" of moisture

Since it will be a 'fluffier snow' and colder Temperatures...I think our Snow Ratio could be about 12:1

So, .50" of rain could equal about 5-7" 
Much less Moisture for Southern WY, but I still think snow rates will be High and snow is still possible as far South into CO and Cheyenne.

WHEN DOES IT ARRIVE???

-- Tonight's GFS/NAM are coming to better agreement tonight that the Snow should start coming in as the Cold Front will sag through later Thursday Evening around 5PM.

(Image Left) GFS @ 11PM shows a strong Jet energy maximum in Far Western WY and more moisture coming in from Northern UT spreading SW WY and Star Valley.  

--CASPER/RIVERTON...Dry for now.  


Should come in like a 1-2 Punch with this energy from the West and also other energy coming in from MT, dropping South...thus, giving the Bighorns/Black Hills their Snow Potential.

HOW ABOUT FRIDAY?

(Image Left) Tonight's NAM run has a good flow of snow and NE winds wrapping around the Low itself in Central WY, including the Owl Creeks, Wind Rivers..and just West of Casper.

--This is for Friday Morning at 5 AM.  Cold Front has already blasted through majority of WY, so that
'dry/powdery' snow is ideal for this..

GREAT FOR SKIING...hint hint. BAD for Snowmen :(

--(IMAGE LEFT)  GFS by Mid-day Friday is more aggressive than the NAM all day with this snow and favoring Moderate Snowfall for Central WY; including Casper/Riverton.  

-A 996mb Surface Low is in the prime spot for Upslope Snowfall along Casper Mtn and Central WY..

WHY?  Remember, Low Pressure spins counter-clockwise and if you moisture working in around it, Northeast Winds are a favorable direction for this setup.  
Also, it depends how deep this Trough digs too...Could decrease the snow potential. 

(IMAGE ABOVE)-- GFS still likes the snow to stick around through Friday Evening, so this could play havoc for drivers coming home from work.  Light to Moderate Snow is still possible, but still showing Casper and Central WY in good shape for snow.  Northerly and Westerly flow is possible around this time, so the Upslope could be cut-off.  Note how the Low 'Broadens' and gets not as defined and decreases its Intensity to 1000MB. 
BUT, the NAM is faster than the GFS and leaves a few snow showers in Casper and flurries by Midnight.

SOMETHING INTERESTING:
This was a post from the NWS in Riverton earlier today in regards to the snow potential.  Click Here:  SNOW POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY 


***Last But Not Least:  SNOW AMOUNTS ???***

 (IMAGE ABOVE) Quite Accurate, Tonight's RPM Run majority of WY, besides Cheyenne area, seeing over 2-4".  BUT, you can see a swath of 4-6" of snow can be found in Central WY..and maybe 6-8" closer to Casper.  Can't rule out 8-10" possibly along Casper Mountain and Green Mountains.  HEAVIEST Amounts should remain in the Higher Elevations where a 12-18" are possible in Wind Rivers and toward Tetons/Gros Ventres.

--May be hard to see, but this is the Snow Potential from Bufkit for the Casper Airport..General 5-7" is possible..



-If the Airport sees that much, possibly Higher amounts in the city and near the Mountain.

ANOTHER Snow Model I look at this is this...this is from the NAM run from Tonight.

--Legend is hard to read but let me tell you what each City looks like.

Casper:  5-8"
Riverton: 5-10"
Buffalo/Kaycee: 5-8"
Sheridan:  8-15"
Douglas: 2-5"

Not shown, Cheyenne may be on the cusp of this storm, so I'm saying a general 1-3" down in SE WY.





One more...here is the GFS Snow map for the Country..and this shows the track of this snow.

-SLIGHTLY Higher than the NAM run tonight..and looking at about 8-10" in Casper..

-Nearing a Foot for Casper Mtn.
-6-8" in Riverton
- Over a Foot to 18" possibly in Bighorns, just West of Sheridan/Buffalo.




MODELS are slowly coming together with amounts...but I'll keep you posted on Wednesday's Runs and Snow amounts

-MIKE

1/4: DRY Weekend, but SOMETHING is Lurking next Week

Despite very frigid Temperatures for the entire week and High's remaining well Below Normal, at least it has been Sunny.

Lets get tonight's Little Frontal Passage.  No Moisture is with this, except a few clouds.

This is the Surface Map for Saturday Morning, noting the Low around Fargo, ND and the front stretching through the Black Hills.  HIGH Pressure will still build and give majority of this Weekend a Dry/ Near Sesaonable one for the Temperatures.


Before I get to Next Week's Snow chances, lets look at our Snow Depth for WY.  The COLD Temperatures have kept most of the snow on the ground, but I think when Sunday passes, a lot of that snow will be gone; East of the Divide.

Just a Trace-1" in the GREY is for the majority of Central and Eastern WY.  But good snow pack remains in the Gros Ventres, Wind Rivers, Tetons, and YNP; including WY/Salt Ranges.

Our First Snow chance could swing in by Monday:

18z (11AM) NAM RUN VALID FOR 11AM MONDAY

Today's NAM Run's are showing this 'wave' of Light Snow pushing through Western and into Central/Eastern WY around Mid-Day Monday.  Could see light accumulation with this.

BUT, Check this out...GFS is different on their opinion.  NO SNOW Monday, but possibly on Tuesday.

18z GFS (11AM) VALID FOR 5AM TUESDAY

GFS likes this light snow a little 'slower' and brings it in Late Monday, West of the Divide, and across the Bighorns by Tuesday Morning.  GFS is keeping Central and Eastern WY bone dry.

NOW, lets get to the late week system for Thursday/Friday:

18z GFS VALID FOR 11PM THURSDAY

THURSDAY, An Upper Low will bring a strong wave off the Pacific Northwest and swing its 'Northern' Stream in Northern MT and the Southern Stream here in WY.  Moderate Snow could fall through the day in Western WY, and then spill out East of the Divide by evening. 
-Upslope could form around the Wind River's and snow is favored for Lander/Riverton..and farther East into Casper and up in the Bighorns. 
-EUROPEAN Model is verifying this too, and will stick around with us by Friday Morning into the Laramies, giving the potential of Snowfall for Cheyenne and SE WY too. 

NO AMOUNTS YET, but when Monday rolls around, we'll get a good idea of what we are looking at...

STAY TUNED!

-MIKE