1/8: SNOW TALK

Good 'Late' Tuesday to all, since the show has ended, its now time to focus on the Special Blog Post in regards to the Snow Potential Thursday Night/Friday.

BEFORE the Snow, Lets enjoy another day on Wednesday with High's climbing in the upper 30° and 40°s for Central WY.  Winds will stay brisk again from the Southwest, but that's an ordinary day here in WY.


SNOW TALK:

Lets 1st look at the amount of Moisture we are capable seeing with this for the next several days to come.

--Looks like the Miss/TN Valley's could see copious amounts of rain ranging about 2-7", all the way up to KY.

--Closer to Home, enough moisture here for snowfall...where Central WY could see .25-.50" of moisture

Since it will be a 'fluffier snow' and colder Temperatures...I think our Snow Ratio could be about 12:1

So, .50" of rain could equal about 5-7" 
Much less Moisture for Southern WY, but I still think snow rates will be High and snow is still possible as far South into CO and Cheyenne.

WHEN DOES IT ARRIVE???

-- Tonight's GFS/NAM are coming to better agreement tonight that the Snow should start coming in as the Cold Front will sag through later Thursday Evening around 5PM.

(Image Left) GFS @ 11PM shows a strong Jet energy maximum in Far Western WY and more moisture coming in from Northern UT spreading SW WY and Star Valley.  

--CASPER/RIVERTON...Dry for now.  


Should come in like a 1-2 Punch with this energy from the West and also other energy coming in from MT, dropping South...thus, giving the Bighorns/Black Hills their Snow Potential.

HOW ABOUT FRIDAY?

(Image Left) Tonight's NAM run has a good flow of snow and NE winds wrapping around the Low itself in Central WY, including the Owl Creeks, Wind Rivers..and just West of Casper.

--This is for Friday Morning at 5 AM.  Cold Front has already blasted through majority of WY, so that
'dry/powdery' snow is ideal for this..

GREAT FOR SKIING...hint hint. BAD for Snowmen :(

--(IMAGE LEFT)  GFS by Mid-day Friday is more aggressive than the NAM all day with this snow and favoring Moderate Snowfall for Central WY; including Casper/Riverton.  

-A 996mb Surface Low is in the prime spot for Upslope Snowfall along Casper Mtn and Central WY..

WHY?  Remember, Low Pressure spins counter-clockwise and if you moisture working in around it, Northeast Winds are a favorable direction for this setup.  
Also, it depends how deep this Trough digs too...Could decrease the snow potential. 

(IMAGE ABOVE)-- GFS still likes the snow to stick around through Friday Evening, so this could play havoc for drivers coming home from work.  Light to Moderate Snow is still possible, but still showing Casper and Central WY in good shape for snow.  Northerly and Westerly flow is possible around this time, so the Upslope could be cut-off.  Note how the Low 'Broadens' and gets not as defined and decreases its Intensity to 1000MB. 
BUT, the NAM is faster than the GFS and leaves a few snow showers in Casper and flurries by Midnight.

SOMETHING INTERESTING:
This was a post from the NWS in Riverton earlier today in regards to the snow potential.  Click Here:  SNOW POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY 


***Last But Not Least:  SNOW AMOUNTS ???***

 (IMAGE ABOVE) Quite Accurate, Tonight's RPM Run majority of WY, besides Cheyenne area, seeing over 2-4".  BUT, you can see a swath of 4-6" of snow can be found in Central WY..and maybe 6-8" closer to Casper.  Can't rule out 8-10" possibly along Casper Mountain and Green Mountains.  HEAVIEST Amounts should remain in the Higher Elevations where a 12-18" are possible in Wind Rivers and toward Tetons/Gros Ventres.

--May be hard to see, but this is the Snow Potential from Bufkit for the Casper Airport..General 5-7" is possible..



-If the Airport sees that much, possibly Higher amounts in the city and near the Mountain.

ANOTHER Snow Model I look at this is this...this is from the NAM run from Tonight.

--Legend is hard to read but let me tell you what each City looks like.

Casper:  5-8"
Riverton: 5-10"
Buffalo/Kaycee: 5-8"
Sheridan:  8-15"
Douglas: 2-5"

Not shown, Cheyenne may be on the cusp of this storm, so I'm saying a general 1-3" down in SE WY.





One more...here is the GFS Snow map for the Country..and this shows the track of this snow.

-SLIGHTLY Higher than the NAM run tonight..and looking at about 8-10" in Casper..

-Nearing a Foot for Casper Mtn.
-6-8" in Riverton
- Over a Foot to 18" possibly in Bighorns, just West of Sheridan/Buffalo.




MODELS are slowly coming together with amounts...but I'll keep you posted on Wednesday's Runs and Snow amounts

-MIKE