Friday, January 4, 2013

1/4: DRY Weekend, but SOMETHING is Lurking next Week

Despite very frigid Temperatures for the entire week and High's remaining well Below Normal, at least it has been Sunny.

Lets get tonight's Little Frontal Passage.  No Moisture is with this, except a few clouds.

This is the Surface Map for Saturday Morning, noting the Low around Fargo, ND and the front stretching through the Black Hills.  HIGH Pressure will still build and give majority of this Weekend a Dry/ Near Sesaonable one for the Temperatures.


Before I get to Next Week's Snow chances, lets look at our Snow Depth for WY.  The COLD Temperatures have kept most of the snow on the ground, but I think when Sunday passes, a lot of that snow will be gone; East of the Divide.
Just a Trace-1" in the GREY is for the majority of Central and Eastern WY.  But good snow pack remains in the Gros Ventres, Wind Rivers, Tetons, and YNP; including WY/Salt Ranges.

Our First Snow chance could swing in by Monday:
18z (11AM) NAM RUN VALID FOR 11AM MONDAY
Today's NAM Run's are showing this 'wave' of Light Snow pushing through Western and into Central/Eastern WY around Mid-Day Monday.  Could see light accumulation with this.

BUT, Check this out...GFS is different on their opinion.  NO SNOW Monday, but possibly on Tuesday.
18z GFS (11AM) VALID FOR 5AM TUESDAY
GFS likes this light snow a little 'slower' and brings it in Late Monday, West of the Divide, and across the Bighorns by Tuesday Morning.  GFS is keeping Central and Eastern WY bone dry.

NOW, lets get to the late week system for Thursday/Friday:
18z GFS VALID FOR 11PM THURSDAY
THURSDAY, An Upper Low will bring a strong wave off the Pacific Northwest and swing its 'Northern' Stream in Northern MT and the Southern Stream here in WY.  Moderate Snow could fall through the day in Western WY, and then spill out East of the Divide by evening. 
-Upslope could form around the Wind River's and snow is favored for Lander/Riverton..and farther East into Casper and up in the Bighorns. 
-EUROPEAN Model is verifying this too, and will stick around with us by Friday Morning into the Laramies, giving the potential of Snowfall for Cheyenne and SE WY too. 

NO AMOUNTS YET, but when Monday rolls around, we'll get a good idea of what we are looking at...

STAY TUNED!

-MIKE

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