Quite a Breezy Afternoon to start the work week! Well, it looks like Tuesday will be a Carbon-Copy of it.
* Blustery & Mild with High's about 10° Above Average along the I-25 Corridor from Buffalo to Cheyenne. Much Calmer & Pleasant in the Basins for Riverton/Lander.
A Trough to the East will keep us Breezy, while Zonal "Moist" Flow will enhance Snow Chances for Western WY. This is a favorable setup for them so I'm expecting up to 3-5" possible through the Day/Evening.
WEDNESDAY: Breezy and Dry for most of the Day in Central WY, but our Cold Front will carve along the Spine of the Rockies from Montana/Idaho and Drop South by Evening. NOW, what I am showing you is our in-house Futurecast what I use each night. It tends to take the Front and Precip farther South than the Evening Data via GFS & NAM. Here's what I see:
<< Where the Storm barrels through, an area of Low Pressure with Upslope Flow with it favoring the Mountains. Now the Futurecast has the Front in Central WY with Snow also just North of Riverton/Casper along I-90
* Now, the evening NAM Model shows our Front Slower along I-90 with light Snow along the Northern Tier of WY.
* BUT, the Evening GFS data is even Slower than the NAM. The Front is along the WY/MT Line with Light to Moderate Snowfall in Southern Montana and maybe a flurry chance in Northern WY.
By WEDNESDAY Late-Evening, the Front blasts through much of Wyoming. However, the Precip Placement is once again, different via NAM vs. GFS:
* However, the GFS shows Snow in far Northwest Wyoming and just Flurries for Riverton/Casper/Lander and nothing for the Laramies.
THURSDAY: As we head into the Morning-MidDay Hours, both NAM & GFS show different ideas where the Heaviest Snow should filter through. One the area of Low Pressure is pretty Broad, but not as Strong unlike our October & April Storms as its only at 1012mb's. If you read and keep up with these Blogs, I stay concerned when the Lows are near a 1000mb or Lower. NAM keeps Snow in the Black Hills and keeping Central WY mostly Dry with a few Flurries...NOW, here is what the GFS is showing (BELOW)
<< PERFECT Setup for Casper and the Laramies; where the High & Low converge and buckles a deepening area of Moisture while the Low "Flattens" like a Pancake. I derive these as a Pancake Low as the Low compresses since the High Pressure is much stronger than the Low.
MODERATE Snow for Casper Mtn and near the Black Hills, too. Light Snow likely for Riverton area.
SNOW leaves by late Thursday Evening, but then the COLD sets in. Depending on when the Skies clear up, High Pressure builds in from our North in the Dakotas/Montana and drops South. With our Snow Pack and very COLD Arctic air, Most likely in the Teens and Single Digits! Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr...
SNOW AMOUNTS: Remember, knowing how much Snow your going to get more than 2 Days out is not an Accurate Forecast! Also, the GFS favors the Casper area, while the NAM favors the Riverton/Lander region. Though the GFS Snow Amount Map isn't out yet, Here is the NAM Amount.
** Each Color on the Bottom is in inches and that is a legend of how much snow your City could be expected. ** And as always, This is NOT My Forecast
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