Saturday, November 30, 2013

11/30: Late Saturday Snow/COLD Talk

Its a Late-Evening Post but this Read can bring you up to Speed of what the Models showed Saturday for the Upcoming Storm.

<< LATEST Advisories for Wyoming.  Click on the Map to enlarge if needed.  But the Snow Potential for Western WY can vary from 8-20"in some spots.

- BLUSTERY for Central WY in Casper and along the Laramies for Sunday Evening and through Monday in advance of our Front.


WESTERN Wyoming will get blasted with Snow with Moderate-Heavy Intensity through the Day on Sunday and into the Evening as a Trough passes by.  By Monday, the Snow Increases once again, as our Actual Cold Front Arrives from Montana/Idaho.  Central WY will stay Dry/Mild but the winds will be Howling!

-- GFS/NAM takes the Cold Front in Northwest WY by 5PM Monday Evening with Heavy Snow possible in the West as a very Deep 992mb Upper Low rolls into Eastern WY.  









** UPDATE **  Last Post, I mentioned how the Front could impact Wyoming by early-Mid Tuesday Morning, well....  IT has changed.  Since the Storm is gathering more Forward Momentum, the Front has now sped up on the Timing. Right Now, the Cold Front should impact Central WY during the Overnight Hours on Tuesday Morning.  Light Snow should break out and could be Moderate at Times in Casper area if the NAM Model verifies for Tuesday Morning (IMAGE BELOW)

<  Could be a tough travel to Work for Tuesday Morning so make sure you take some extra time as Roads should be slick with the Snow.

Blowing Snow is likely as the Wind Field gets Stronger.  Safe Travels Folks.







TUESDAY EVENING & WEDNESDAY looks to be Hazardous.  I think Snow is possible throughout Central & Eastern WY, but all 3 Models are showing different placement of "Who" will see the Heavier Snow and "When" the Snow will taper off. Right now, the Long-Range EUROPEAN Model has the Snow/Flurries ending by Wednesday Evening; however the GFS keeps Flurries through the Overnight for many of us and Light Snow in Cheyenne/Laramies.

** WHEN the Snow Tapers off, Skies should thin out and Dry out our Airmass. I do think we will go BELOW ZERO for Wednesday & Thursday Overnight. Daytime Highs should stay in the Low-Mid Teens for Central WY. Here is the GFS Forecast for Overnight Lows.

-- Remember, the Bigger our Snowfall Depth on the Ground, the COLDER the Temperatures could get IF the Skies Clear and Winds remain Calm.

-10° is Possible for Casper since we could see more Snowfall than other spots.  You see a lot of White in Western WY.  We could very likely see Temperatures about -30° or Higher!  

*DANGEROUS Temps, so take any precautions if necessary*

SO HOW MUCH SNOW?  I did Say that our Models increased of the Timing with the Cold Front about 12 Hours from Friday to Tonight's Post. That does have some effect to our Snow Potential too. A fast, quick hitting storm reduces a Moderate-Heavy Snow.

<< *THIS IS NOT MY FORECAST*  This is the GFS Snow Potential. Last Night, it showed Casper Over a Foot..now its 1/2 that.  And it pretty much Halved much of Central WY.

Cheyenne and the Laramies could still a Moderate Snowfall event.

- As I said last night, Please Take these Amounts with a grain of Salt as these Totals could change up or down by Sunday.  Snow is one of the hardest variables to Forecast cause its based on 
1)Timing
2)Intensity
3) Storm Track

THOUGHTS: After seeing the Data from the Morning to this Evening, its still that Coin-Flip or Luck of the Draw.  If Models slow down on Sunday, then expect a Moderate-Heavy Snow Potential for Central WY.  However...IF we see a Consistent Faster run like this with our Cold Front arriving Late Monday/Overnight Tuesday, expect a Light to maybe "Moderate" Snowfall of up to 6" in a few Spots in some Cities like South of Casper.  HEAVY SNOW for Western WY is a likely given from what I am seeing.

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