2/13: CUPIDS 'CLIPPER' & SNOW AMOUNTS

I hope everyone has caught on to my little 'pun' on-air past couple days with this approaching system...drum roll please.....CUPID'S CLIPPER.

Since its Valentines Day (Thursday) and we are seeing a Clipping system from Alberta dropping South, lets put two-two together!

--NAM HI-RES Radar at 3AM Thursday is showing snow chances increasing with that 'moist' Northwest flow in the Bighorns and Black Hills.

-Light to Moderate snowfall rates will be sporadic at times.

-Snow Showers will continue through the afternoon and early evening and overnight hours off and on.

--8AM FRIDAY shows Light Snow lingering possibly on Casper Mtn and bands of snow still falling in the Bighorns around Buffalo and Sheridan.

Light snow 'should' tapper off by Friday Evening..

Looking like Saturday will be Nice and Mild for Central WY!

HI-RES RAPID REFRESH (HRRR) is showing Snow Amounts through 9AM Thursday...

-Bighorns, Snowy's, and Sierra Madre's could pick up the heavier snow amounts.

-Casper and points East could see up to an Inch or so and maybe slightly higher in a few isolated spots where the Bands could form..like how a band is showing SW Niobrara Co. something.

--  I Updated the Snow Map from this earlier Broadcasts to Tonight's after looking at Model Runs from the 0z's of NAM/GFS.  GFS turned aggressive in the morning for the Bighorns/Black Hills, so that is why I upgraded the amounts to 1-4".  Plus, North of Newcastle (Four Corners), has already seen 3" of snow as on 9PM Wednesday.



Wait and see.... and again..Happy Valentines Day!

2/7: SNOW AMOUNTS, THUNDERSNOW?, SAFETY TIPS

1ST TOPIC:

Snow is still on track to nose into WY as early as Friday Afternoon for West of the Divide and approach SW WY by evening.  As for Riverton/Casper, we could start see the snow showing up around the late evening hours approaching Midnight time frame.  Snow continues Saturday Morning and through the Overnight.  SUNDAY, we'll see a new Developing Low from the North in MT and drop South giving us a reinforcing shot of Snow for the Bighorns and Central WY.

2ND TOPIC:

I mentioned earlier tonight about 'THUNDERSNOW' potential.  It is common to have this in placed for us during these situations.  We'll stay quite mild/dry for Friday, but that Low will come through with a layer of Cold Air mixing in with Instability.  Isentropics, or moisture running over ontop of Moisture will work in for Sweetwater County area and thats why they may see over a Half-Foot of snow. 


Just what does THUNDERSNOW sound like?  Here is a great clip from TWC's Jim Cantore having fun out in it:
THUNDERSNOW in Chicago

 --Here is the 'LIFTED INDEX"  showing the amount of Instability..Anything in GREEN color shows the 'negative indicies' and if you go in the Negatives, Thundersnow is possible.











3RD TOPIC:

Here are the Snow Amounts I posted earlier Tonight.  BUT, looking after tonight's model data, I may need to lessen the projected Amounts.

4TH TOPIC:

Winter Storm Watches are out for much of Central WY & Includes the WY and Salt Ranges, plus the Wind Rivers.

5TH TOPIC:

Previously, I said 'LESSER' Snow amounts, here are tonight's Meteograms from CASPER and Riverton.

-RIVERTON: 5-9"

-CASPER: 4-7"

2/7: WEEKEND SNOW THREAT...Still Likely

--NAM for Saturday Afternoon to Evening brings Moderate to Heavy Snow for Central WY and in the Riverton/Casper Area.

--This morning, the track was farther West. BUT, this evening the track shifted East to include a  996 > 992 MB Low in the Nebraska Panhandle.

REMEMBER, this is just Saturday, a new batch arrives on Sunday from MT with Light to Moderate snow on this one for Central WY.

--CANADIAN shows the same from the NAM Model, but the Low just slightly south of the NAM track.

Moderate to Heavy Snow is with this in Central WY, but the GEM (Canadian) likes to be more 'aggressive' than most models.  We shall see how it pans out.

--EUROPEAN likes the snow to be a little bit slower than the NAM on their runs.. About 6 hours slower, in fact. 

Moderate snow is likely with this track for Central WY with Upslope potential.  Not to forget, the GFS is siding with the EURO on this one as well.

-Light to Moderate snow continues on Sunday for both models with the new batch from MT for Central WY.


METEOGRAM TIME:

(LEFT) Casper-- 6-10"

(LEFT) Riverton: 6-12"

(LEFT) Lander:  10-22"

Remember, the 18"+ could creep near the foothills too..as you approach the Wind Rivers.






SNOW POTENTIAL AMOUNTS:

1st:  Here is the NAM Snow Amount through Sunday Morning...Remember, WE WILL see more snow by Sunday morning and afternoon.

Casper:  12-20"
Riverton:  8-14"

 2nd:  GFS Snow Amount:  

Not as much as the NAM, since the snow track is a little to the South and East..but still impressive.

CASPER:  6-10"
RIVERTON:  4-8"











THOUGHTS ??.....
Well folks, some of these snow amounts overwhelmed me tonight.  But we do have a very potent storm to forecast for and must use our thinking caps on this.  For a PERFECT snow, you want a Southern Low track to sweep and re-generate itself at the perfect spot East of the Rockies and travel to the Northeast.
This 'could' happen and still a 'ways away' from it.  PLEASE follow our latest trends/models here at KTWO.

-MIKE

2/6: WEDNESDAY'S Light Snow and Mild Temps...SNOWY WEEKEND?

Haven't posted a Blog in quite sometime, but the threat of Heavy Snow for Central WY is possible.

Haven't Done so, here is Tuesday's Night's Video Forecast:  TUESDAY'S WEBCAST

WEDNESDAY:
A Weak Front will swing through from MT into WY during the day and will drop light snow for the YNP/Bighorns.  Just not enough Moisture with this bad boy, but enough to coat in the Higher Elevations. Temperatures, however, another Mild Day for Central/Eastern WY with clouds and readings nearing 50° again.

(ABOVE) As you see, maybe a dusting to an Inch in the Bighorns and Inch or two for YNP..and maybe light snow for the Snowy's and Sierra Madre's.


WEEKEND:

VERY hard to forecast this snow system at this time.  Models are varying and differentiating itself. Plus, a 1-2 Punch will come with this and later a 3rd Wave approaches later Sunday.

SYNOPSIS:  An Approaching Cold Front will slide in and bring a deep Trough of Cold air and an Upper Low from the Southwest moving NE into the Colorado area.  Low deepens from 1008 > 996 MB at times.  If you know what means, lots of Deepening and Pressure with intense banding possible..UPSLOPE potential. NOT DONE YET,...A new shot of Colder Air swings in on Sunday with a Low dropping from Canada/MT into WY. Thus, bringing more Snow chances on top of the Saturday snow.

--GFS on Friday Night:  LOW is giving some moisture over-riding on top of more moisture (Isentropics) for Southern/Western WY. 

--This is the story painted for 11PM Friday Night.

--EUROPEAN Model showing the Low in the same placement on Saturday Morning at 5AM

NOTE the Wind Barbs showing a NE wind flow component...keep an eye on it.  UPSLOPE potential. Light to Moderate Snowfall is possible for West of the Divide and just West of Casper.

--GFS Saturday Night at 11PM

The LOW intensifies like I mentioned in CO and continues the Snow for Central WY.  Winds could come from the 'North', but with that being said, Upslope is not a potential during this times.

-SE WY (Cheyenne) looks like they could see heavier snow at this time.

NOW...Eyes turn North in MT.  That Moisture will drop South giving us that extra chance of Snow Potential.

--EUROPEAN  at 11PM Saturday Night:

--NOW, look at the Placement of the Low on this.  Here, its slightly North than the GFS.  IF, this is right, we will see MORE snow potential for Central WY. Plus, the Low is deep at 996MB.  Deeper the Low, more intense the Snow could be.

--SNOW in Northern MT will drop in WY by Sunday.



WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

Still, a lot can change between Now and Friday.  Snow Accumulations are through the Roof with some models but we will fine-tune them when Thursday approaches.  Still not sure where the LOW will go, but that is whats so hard about tracking Lows..they have a mind of its own.

HOWEVER, here is the GFS SNOW MAP to give you an estimate what we could see...don't Trust this amount at first.

NEXT POST Wednesday Night.

1/9: SNOW TALK...Wednesday Edition

Evening Folks,

Wednesday lived up to be a 'gusty' day for the majority along all the Wind Corridors, especially here in Casper. 

NOW, lets get to this Snow Event on tap for Thursday.

THURSDAY 11PM;  TONIGHT'S GFS RUN

--Light to Moderate (at times) Snow should start to fill in West of the Divide by 11PM Thursday Night, behind the front with Isentropic Lift; moisture over-running on top of moisture.

--East of the Divide; Looking Dry and Windy for many of us along the Front.  Bighorns could see some light snow 'trying' to fall.

FRIDAY 5AM; TONIGHT'S GFS RUN

--5AM Friday shows the snow starting to spread farther East and into the Bighorns and nosing around Gillette, too.

--Banding of Moderate Snow could be in SW WY around Evanston, circulating around that LOW.  

--I think Casper/Riverton could see a few flurries start to fly around, but I think it'll take a longer time cause of how Dry our Humidity and Dewpoints will be.

11AM FRIDAY; TONIGHT'S GFS

--SURFACE Low Strengthens into a tight 992 Low in NE CO...thus, this is showing signs STILL producing Up-Slope in the Wind Rivers, Central WY and in East-Central WY.  

--Bighorns still looking at Moderate Snow potential.

--Cheyenne, this will be the time when they'll be getting on the Snow..while Sierra Madre's are under a Winter Storm Watch, by the Way.

2PM FRIDAY; TONIGHT'S NAM

--HOWEVER,  This is completely different.  

This is the NAM at 2PM.  Snow is MUCH lighter for majority of WY, but that Low could deepen to 992MB and snow on the back side.  This is where the Black Hills could see 'significant' snow...over a FOOT. 

--By Friday Evening, SNOW could still sag along Central WY. 

--Nice Banding could show up late afternoon and early evening in the Black Hills and along Central SD.

As we approach later Friday Night, snow should still stick around, but get lighter in amounts and snow rates...flurries are possible through the overnight.


THERE YOU HAVE IT...




NOW, on to Snow Maps and Amounts:

-Last Night's Meteogram showing Snow Amounts for Casper....  4-7"



 

- TONIGHT'S is Different:   2.5-5"

Note how the NAM is not picking up what the GFS is liking..?

TONIGHT'S RPM at 11PM shows less snow from last night's runs for Central WY.  If I could ballpark it, I say Casper could see 2-5" out of this.  Western WY could see easily up to a Foot, while Bighorns may see 6-10".  WY Black Hills could see the same..BUT I do think the majority of the snow will be East of WY in South Dakota and farther Northeast in ND.


THIS IS FROM THE GFS SNOW AMOUNT MAP:

--IF the track takes this way...looking about a solid 6-10" for Casper and 6-8" for Riverton

--Over a foot for West of the Divide and Wind Rivers and possibly North of Douglas and Black Hills Region.  

JUST A WAITING GAME...




AND NOW, THE NAM SNOW MAP:

-- MUCH LESS in the amounts here for Central WY.. Casper could see maybe 1-4" on this and Riverton maybe 2-5"

--Not Shown, but the NAM painted about 10-18" for the Black Hills









THURSDAY, I will be spitting out my 'Final Thoughts' as I will be making my Snow Amount Map for WY and 'who' could be the winner for Snowfall...STAY TUNED...

1/8: SNOW TALK

Good 'Late' Tuesday to all, since the show has ended, its now time to focus on the Special Blog Post in regards to the Snow Potential Thursday Night/Friday.

BEFORE the Snow, Lets enjoy another day on Wednesday with High's climbing in the upper 30° and 40°s for Central WY.  Winds will stay brisk again from the Southwest, but that's an ordinary day here in WY.


SNOW TALK:

Lets 1st look at the amount of Moisture we are capable seeing with this for the next several days to come.

--Looks like the Miss/TN Valley's could see copious amounts of rain ranging about 2-7", all the way up to KY.

--Closer to Home, enough moisture here for snowfall...where Central WY could see .25-.50" of moisture

Since it will be a 'fluffier snow' and colder Temperatures...I think our Snow Ratio could be about 12:1

So, .50" of rain could equal about 5-7" 
Much less Moisture for Southern WY, but I still think snow rates will be High and snow is still possible as far South into CO and Cheyenne.

WHEN DOES IT ARRIVE???

-- Tonight's GFS/NAM are coming to better agreement tonight that the Snow should start coming in as the Cold Front will sag through later Thursday Evening around 5PM.

(Image Left) GFS @ 11PM shows a strong Jet energy maximum in Far Western WY and more moisture coming in from Northern UT spreading SW WY and Star Valley.  

--CASPER/RIVERTON...Dry for now.  


Should come in like a 1-2 Punch with this energy from the West and also other energy coming in from MT, dropping South...thus, giving the Bighorns/Black Hills their Snow Potential.

HOW ABOUT FRIDAY?

(Image Left) Tonight's NAM run has a good flow of snow and NE winds wrapping around the Low itself in Central WY, including the Owl Creeks, Wind Rivers..and just West of Casper.

--This is for Friday Morning at 5 AM.  Cold Front has already blasted through majority of WY, so that
'dry/powdery' snow is ideal for this..

GREAT FOR SKIING...hint hint. BAD for Snowmen :(

--(IMAGE LEFT)  GFS by Mid-day Friday is more aggressive than the NAM all day with this snow and favoring Moderate Snowfall for Central WY; including Casper/Riverton.  

-A 996mb Surface Low is in the prime spot for Upslope Snowfall along Casper Mtn and Central WY..

WHY?  Remember, Low Pressure spins counter-clockwise and if you moisture working in around it, Northeast Winds are a favorable direction for this setup.  
Also, it depends how deep this Trough digs too...Could decrease the snow potential. 

(IMAGE ABOVE)-- GFS still likes the snow to stick around through Friday Evening, so this could play havoc for drivers coming home from work.  Light to Moderate Snow is still possible, but still showing Casper and Central WY in good shape for snow.  Northerly and Westerly flow is possible around this time, so the Upslope could be cut-off.  Note how the Low 'Broadens' and gets not as defined and decreases its Intensity to 1000MB. 
BUT, the NAM is faster than the GFS and leaves a few snow showers in Casper and flurries by Midnight.

SOMETHING INTERESTING:
This was a post from the NWS in Riverton earlier today in regards to the snow potential.  Click Here:  SNOW POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY 


***Last But Not Least:  SNOW AMOUNTS ???***

 (IMAGE ABOVE) Quite Accurate, Tonight's RPM Run majority of WY, besides Cheyenne area, seeing over 2-4".  BUT, you can see a swath of 4-6" of snow can be found in Central WY..and maybe 6-8" closer to Casper.  Can't rule out 8-10" possibly along Casper Mountain and Green Mountains.  HEAVIEST Amounts should remain in the Higher Elevations where a 12-18" are possible in Wind Rivers and toward Tetons/Gros Ventres.

--May be hard to see, but this is the Snow Potential from Bufkit for the Casper Airport..General 5-7" is possible..



-If the Airport sees that much, possibly Higher amounts in the city and near the Mountain.

ANOTHER Snow Model I look at this is this...this is from the NAM run from Tonight.

--Legend is hard to read but let me tell you what each City looks like.

Casper:  5-8"
Riverton: 5-10"
Buffalo/Kaycee: 5-8"
Sheridan:  8-15"
Douglas: 2-5"

Not shown, Cheyenne may be on the cusp of this storm, so I'm saying a general 1-3" down in SE WY.





One more...here is the GFS Snow map for the Country..and this shows the track of this snow.

-SLIGHTLY Higher than the NAM run tonight..and looking at about 8-10" in Casper..

-Nearing a Foot for Casper Mtn.
-6-8" in Riverton
- Over a Foot to 18" possibly in Bighorns, just West of Sheridan/Buffalo.




MODELS are slowly coming together with amounts...but I'll keep you posted on Wednesday's Runs and Snow amounts

-MIKE

1/4: DRY Weekend, but SOMETHING is Lurking next Week

Despite very frigid Temperatures for the entire week and High's remaining well Below Normal, at least it has been Sunny.

Lets get tonight's Little Frontal Passage.  No Moisture is with this, except a few clouds.

This is the Surface Map for Saturday Morning, noting the Low around Fargo, ND and the front stretching through the Black Hills.  HIGH Pressure will still build and give majority of this Weekend a Dry/ Near Sesaonable one for the Temperatures.


Before I get to Next Week's Snow chances, lets look at our Snow Depth for WY.  The COLD Temperatures have kept most of the snow on the ground, but I think when Sunday passes, a lot of that snow will be gone; East of the Divide.

Just a Trace-1" in the GREY is for the majority of Central and Eastern WY.  But good snow pack remains in the Gros Ventres, Wind Rivers, Tetons, and YNP; including WY/Salt Ranges.

Our First Snow chance could swing in by Monday:

18z (11AM) NAM RUN VALID FOR 11AM MONDAY

Today's NAM Run's are showing this 'wave' of Light Snow pushing through Western and into Central/Eastern WY around Mid-Day Monday.  Could see light accumulation with this.

BUT, Check this out...GFS is different on their opinion.  NO SNOW Monday, but possibly on Tuesday.

18z GFS (11AM) VALID FOR 5AM TUESDAY

GFS likes this light snow a little 'slower' and brings it in Late Monday, West of the Divide, and across the Bighorns by Tuesday Morning.  GFS is keeping Central and Eastern WY bone dry.

NOW, lets get to the late week system for Thursday/Friday:

18z GFS VALID FOR 11PM THURSDAY

THURSDAY, An Upper Low will bring a strong wave off the Pacific Northwest and swing its 'Northern' Stream in Northern MT and the Southern Stream here in WY.  Moderate Snow could fall through the day in Western WY, and then spill out East of the Divide by evening. 
-Upslope could form around the Wind River's and snow is favored for Lander/Riverton..and farther East into Casper and up in the Bighorns. 
-EUROPEAN Model is verifying this too, and will stick around with us by Friday Morning into the Laramies, giving the potential of Snowfall for Cheyenne and SE WY too. 

NO AMOUNTS YET, but when Monday rolls around, we'll get a good idea of what we are looking at...

STAY TUNED!

-MIKE