Sunday, September 29, 2013

9/29: EARLY OCTOBER SNOW??

Good Late Sunday OR Early Monday Folks:

We should be talking about the Blustery, Breezy, Windy or "Hang on to your Hats" conditions for Monday & Tuesday.  Yea, it'll be Sunny & Seasonal in the 70°s, but not really an enjoyable way to start the work week.

As we approach on Wednesday, the Front from the North and West, will swing around and start cooling us off; like how LAST Weeks storm began.  I think the Higher Elevations in Northwest WY could see some light snow working in. Here is how the GFS is shows this Front sliding through.

--  NOW, this Storm System will be Cooler than last weeks storm cause you can see that Freezing Line (540) in the Northwest.

--This storm, as compared to last week, looks to dig South through the West..something that is not a good sign since it can set up a NEW Area of Low Pressure to form to our South.





However, the EURO from Earlier Today looked faster and showed signs of maybe a Rain/Snow/Mix in Central WY by late Wednesday?  

THURSDAY 6PM:  EURO Model shows "Lighter" intensity than the GFS but both show a Secondary Cold Front pushing into WY from the North dropping down.  Overall, it'll be a Cool Day for many maybe in Upper 40°s or Lower 50°s. 
 *Now, here is what the GFS is showing by 6PM Thursday (IMAGE BELOW)

-- A rapidly developing Low in NE Colorado (1000mb) forms providing Upslope Flow in the Mountain area.  Light to Moderate Snow in Western WY and Bighorns as much of Central WY could 1st start out as Rain to moisten the Airmass.







MIDNIGHT THURSDAY:  As the Low stays in the same spot, the storm INTENSIFIES.  The GFS is showing "All Snow" for much of Central WY with Moderate-Heavy Banding.  I think the Cheyenne/Southeast WY area could see all rain at 1st before they switch over. EURO at this time shows Moderate snow in Bighorns, and maybe a chance of Flurries in Central WY & Lgt Rain in Cheyenne.

-- GFS by Midnight Thursday is very intense as Heavy Banding could develop to near 'white-out' conditions if this Verifies.










FRIDAY 6AM: Before I show you the GFS, the European Model at this time shows very light snow through WY  and Minor Accumulations.  Now as we wake up in the Morning, the storm gets Heavy through the Overnight and continues in the Morning for Work.  Moderate to Heavy Snow all along the Laramies, from Casper to Cheyenne, along I-80 and even in the Black Hills.  Very Mature storm and a grimacing picture if you have any Travel Plans.


-- The GFS is showing the Low slowly moving slightly East now in NE/KS as that large swath of ALL SNOW reigns down in the Laramies.  Much Colder air with this storm as that Canadian Cool Front slides in from the North.
FRIDAY 6PM:  Light to Moderate(IMAGE BELOW) snow will continue (via GFS) as the Low pushes North and East into Omaha, NE by Evening but the back side shows Cold & Snow.  Such a Mature Storm with a tight Low compact that could bring more Severe Weather to our East in the Midwest.  GFS/EURO is showing this storm moving out of WY by late Evening on Friday and could be a Cold Night with a fresh layer of Snow.














EARLY THOUGHTS:  This could be a very big snow from Lander-Riverton-Casper-Cheyenne IF a Southern Low forms in CO off the East-Slopes of the Rockies.  Still there is plenty of Forecasting left to do from Now > Early Thursday to know the Track/AMOUNTS & the Consistency of Model Runs.

** Some Models show over 6" in Lower Elevations including Casper, Douglas, Lander, & Cheyenne

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