What a Blustery way to start the Work Week with SW Winds gusting easily between 40-60MPH. Luckily Tuesday is looking better as a Weak Front will work through dropping the Temperatures just a tad, but the WINDS will stay calmer in the Afternoon. Not expecting any High Wind advisories at this time.
WEDNESDAY: We will stay mainly dry through the the Afternoon with below average Temperatures in the low to mid 60°s as a weak wave of energy forms later in the evening. Could see a 'slight' chance of Rain in Central WY and maybe a Rain/Snow Mix in the Higher Elevations of Absaroka's or Bighorns (IMAGE BELOW). Just a ripple in the Jet Stream I like to call it. Nothing too major, but this will slowly enhance our new storm to Form for Thursday.
THURSDAY: This is where the Models begin to get tough to forecast where all of them Split apart. The newest NAM shows a deep layer of Moisture developing in the Bighorns and spreading along I-90. We will track a 2nd Front bringing colder air as the Snow/Mix will wrap around to All Snow just North of Casper. What I am seeing is a weak Low developing in Southeast WY; which favors Northern WY and SD for Snow. "Could" be a big snow for Rapid City & Black Hills if NAM wins out. (IMAGE BELOW: Midnight Thursday)
- Central WY could see maybe a few flurries as some Dry Air could work in; limiting the Snow Potential also including Cheyenne by Midnight Thursday
-- GFS is for the SNOW Lovers. Moderate to Heavy Snow wants to develop by Thursday Evening in Central WY and stays there by Midnight. The Earlier GFS showed this too and stayed consistent with this Run.
-- As you can see, a broad area of Low Pressure is forming in Eastern CO. If you WANT Snow in WY, that's where you want it for Central & Southeast WY.
-- I do see a clearing edge in Southwest WY, could be some dry air forming...keep that closely monitored.
<< Even the Canadian Model is showing the Big Snows for Central & Southeastern WY with Moderate to Heavy Snow with an Intense/Broad area of Low Pressure in CO/KS/NE by Late Thursday.
<< EUROPEAN by Late Thursday shows a little "Drier Air" working in Southwest WY and maybe around the Wind Rivers too. However we do see Moderate Snow along the Bighorns/Absaroka's & along the Laramies, with ALL Rain for Cheyenne area.
FRIDAY AM: So lets break down the Early Morning of Friday from ALL Four of these Models since they show different aspects. However, I do feel the Models this evening sped up the Storm which could be a Quick-Hitter..Gonna walk you through each one:
<< NAM shows that HEAVY SNOW along I-90 from Gillette to Black Hills & Rapid City. Travel looks treacherous for I-25 toward Casper with Light Snow developing in Central WY; AND still dry for Cheyenne.
<< GFS continues Moderate to Heavy Snow along and East of I-25 especially in the Laramies. The Low is farther South as compared to the Midnight Timeframe.
**Remember, GFS = BIG SNOW!!! **
-- At times, GFS is a little aggressive on their Moisture so this could be far-fetched too
<< CANADIAN Model at 6AM Friday shows the Low farther East with a deep compaction of the pressure at 1000mb. Light to Moderate snows on I-25 with treacherous travel.
BIG SNOW's from them.
I have a feeling some "dry-air" from that EURO model has to be carefully watched if it stays consistent.
-- Also, you see that Broad Low in Central NE/KS keeping the bulk of the Snow in a Band for Western NE/SD.
FRIDAY EVENING: As we pass the Noon time frame and linger through the Day, the snow will still fly around, but how "much longer" and the Intensity? Lets take a gander.
<< GFS shows that Low tightening up with a Severe Threat in the Midwest with Light Snow continuing along & East of I-25..with Heavy Snows in NE/SD.
-- GFS does show the Snow exiting out of WY by late Evening and remaining cold for the Overnight.
-- Want to Mention the Canadian & EURO Model shows the same Same from GFS as the Low moves East and Snow ending by Early Evening.
EARLY THOUGHTS: Honestly, its still TOO EARLY trying to figure out where this Storm will form, the Speed, and HOW MUCH Snow your city will get. Luckily we have 2 Full Days left (Tues/Wed) tracking this Sucker.
** Before I leave, I want to leave you a "Worse Case Scenario" slide of what the GFS is painting out. Remember, the GFS can be overdone with Amounts. Here's what its showing for your area. Plus this is NOT my Forecast.
*Casper: 6-12" Mountain: 12-18"
* Riverton: 1-3"
* Lander: 3-8"
* Laramie: 10-12"
* Cheyenne: 6-10"
* Douglas: 5-10"
No comments:
Post a Comment