You see what time it is as I posted this, but I decided to stay up late to dissect all of the Weather Models to go from start to finish while Forecasting this Storm.
BEFORE I start to talk about this Storm, lets reflect on 2012. Usually parts of WY usually see their First flakes of snow in the 1st Week of October. That being said, We had a small snow event on October 5-6th. Casper saw some if you could remember..Click HERE to see how much we got.
NOW, its time to start to talk about this Storm:
TUESDAY: We will see warm Temperatures up in the 70°s, Dry Conditions, Sunny skies, but very blustery Southwesterly Flow for much of WY. Later that night, I think there could be a chance of some showers in NW Wyoming as the Front is well off to the West in MT/ID...Lots of Cool Air/Moisture will be supplied.
WEDNESDAY: This is when Western WY will feel the 1st effects throughout most of the day as it will transition to Rain> Rain/Snow Mix. Otherwise, it'll be another Breezy/Warm Afternoon in nearing 70° or a little warmer for much of Central & Eastern WY.
NOW, When we look at the Models, a very strong 996mb Low will form to strengthen the Storm but Central & Eastern WY should stay dry as the best moisture will be out in the West with some Snow potential (0zEURO valid at 6PM Wednesday ~ IMAGE BELOW)
THURSDAY: The Cold Front should arrive sometime in the late afternoon to early evening in Central WY. Now, this is when the "Tricky" part comes to play. A new area of Low Pressure wants to form in NE Colorado. If you want WINTRY Precip, thats the placement where you want it..thats the Upslope Component as it interacts with our Front dropping South. Both the GFS/EURO Model is in good agreement of the Low in CO and some wintry mix/precip could start falling in Central WY
** I Think if there is enough cold air already in placed, I won't be surprised if Casper Mtn will see light snow to fall **
- I want to say that the EURO is slightly more aggressive on the Precip Intensity than the GFS and I show you why for Thursday Evening.
(EURO @ Thursday Midnight)
** See how the Storm Intensifies? IF You want to see that Snow, this is what you hope to see see as the Cold sweeps in as a Low Strengthens to our Southeast. **
(GFS @ Thursday Midnight)
** NOT as tightly wound up in NE Colorado, and that shows how 'broad' of a storm could get. I still think we have that chance of some flakes for Central WY and especially in the Mountains.
FRIDAY: I do think there will be enough Moisture and Cool Air to linger some Light Snow in Central/Eastern WY as a Deformation Zone or boundary of snow will form from the Laramies to the Dakota's. As the Noon to Evening progresses, we could see maybe a light mixture of Rain/Snow in a few spots of Central WY.
(FRIDAY @ 12AM)
EARLY THOUGHTS: Its still about 72 Hours away until we get the ball rolling on this Storm to our West. There is a lot of Moisture, plenty of cool air for parts of WY to see over a Foot of Snow in some spots. AMOUNTS, Not sure yet. Its still too early to nail down who will see what, but I will be make a newer post as the newer data comes in.
Stay "Weather Aware" Folks
-MS
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