Thursday's Forecast and "Looking" Ahead

Another Snow System down and Cool Temperatures that Followed behind it on this Wednesday.  Can you believe we got to ONLY 23° here in Casper!  Brrrrrr.... We normally are in the Lower 40°s.  Do the Math...downright cold.


THURSDAY:

Slight Improvement on Thursday in the Middle 30°s for Central WY but some of us could see a few Snow Showers..particularly in the Mountains.

--GFS shows a few Snow Showers 'trying' to develop in that Moist NW Flow as Warmer Weather is trying to slide in from the West into WY by Friday.

--NAM is very bullish and doesn't show much at all..so West of the Divide, Sierra's, & Bighorns/Black Hills.





FRIDAY:

HELLO 40°s!  Gradual Warmup as that Ridge 'slides' into WY and pushes Eastbound and Down to the Dakota's!

SATURDAY:

Not much going on and staying Dry, but WARMER.  Another Day in the 40°s, but the winds will pick up out of the Southwest.

SUNDAY:  
East of the Divide~ WARM and Breezy with our approaching Cold Front setting up shop in SW Montana. 50°s possibly for Casper and Upper 50s for Cheyenne!

BUT...The Front will slide in later Sunday Night giving Snow chances for West of the Divide and Northern WY and Southern WY...Take a look!

SUNDAY 5PM:  Yellowstone/Teton's can see a good round of Moderate Snowfall as a Low will be broad at 1004MB to the East.

So far, the best 'concentrated' Snow remains in Southern MT. 

SUNDAY 11PM:  Snow slides in farther South and East in the Bighorns / Black Hills of WY.  STILL, Southern MT is looking quite intense with this snow.

Can't rule out a 'chance' of a flurry here in Casper, but the Southern Sector of this storm should take shape in West Central CO.. Could clip the Sierra Madres with an Inch or Two..just see how it plays out.

IN ALL...Leaving Central WY bone dry for any measurable snow. 

2/13: CUPIDS 'CLIPPER' & SNOW AMOUNTS

I hope everyone has caught on to my little 'pun' on-air past couple days with this approaching system...drum roll please.....CUPID'S CLIPPER.

Since its Valentines Day (Thursday) and we are seeing a Clipping system from Alberta dropping South, lets put two-two together!

--NAM HI-RES Radar at 3AM Thursday is showing snow chances increasing with that 'moist' Northwest flow in the Bighorns and Black Hills.

-Light to Moderate snowfall rates will be sporadic at times.

-Snow Showers will continue through the afternoon and early evening and overnight hours off and on.

--8AM FRIDAY shows Light Snow lingering possibly on Casper Mtn and bands of snow still falling in the Bighorns around Buffalo and Sheridan.

Light snow 'should' tapper off by Friday Evening..

Looking like Saturday will be Nice and Mild for Central WY!

HI-RES RAPID REFRESH (HRRR) is showing Snow Amounts through 9AM Thursday...

-Bighorns, Snowy's, and Sierra Madre's could pick up the heavier snow amounts.

-Casper and points East could see up to an Inch or so and maybe slightly higher in a few isolated spots where the Bands could form..like how a band is showing SW Niobrara Co. something.

--  I Updated the Snow Map from this earlier Broadcasts to Tonight's after looking at Model Runs from the 0z's of NAM/GFS.  GFS turned aggressive in the morning for the Bighorns/Black Hills, so that is why I upgraded the amounts to 1-4".  Plus, North of Newcastle (Four Corners), has already seen 3" of snow as on 9PM Wednesday.



Wait and see.... and again..Happy Valentines Day!

2/7: SNOW AMOUNTS, THUNDERSNOW?, SAFETY TIPS

1ST TOPIC:

Snow is still on track to nose into WY as early as Friday Afternoon for West of the Divide and approach SW WY by evening.  As for Riverton/Casper, we could start see the snow showing up around the late evening hours approaching Midnight time frame.  Snow continues Saturday Morning and through the Overnight.  SUNDAY, we'll see a new Developing Low from the North in MT and drop South giving us a reinforcing shot of Snow for the Bighorns and Central WY.

2ND TOPIC:

I mentioned earlier tonight about 'THUNDERSNOW' potential.  It is common to have this in placed for us during these situations.  We'll stay quite mild/dry for Friday, but that Low will come through with a layer of Cold Air mixing in with Instability.  Isentropics, or moisture running over ontop of Moisture will work in for Sweetwater County area and thats why they may see over a Half-Foot of snow. 


Just what does THUNDERSNOW sound like?  Here is a great clip from TWC's Jim Cantore having fun out in it:
THUNDERSNOW in Chicago

 --Here is the 'LIFTED INDEX"  showing the amount of Instability..Anything in GREEN color shows the 'negative indicies' and if you go in the Negatives, Thundersnow is possible.











3RD TOPIC:

Here are the Snow Amounts I posted earlier Tonight.  BUT, looking after tonight's model data, I may need to lessen the projected Amounts.

4TH TOPIC:

Winter Storm Watches are out for much of Central WY & Includes the WY and Salt Ranges, plus the Wind Rivers.

5TH TOPIC:

Previously, I said 'LESSER' Snow amounts, here are tonight's Meteograms from CASPER and Riverton.

-RIVERTON: 5-9"

-CASPER: 4-7"

2/7: WEEKEND SNOW THREAT...Still Likely

--NAM for Saturday Afternoon to Evening brings Moderate to Heavy Snow for Central WY and in the Riverton/Casper Area.

--This morning, the track was farther West. BUT, this evening the track shifted East to include a  996 > 992 MB Low in the Nebraska Panhandle.

REMEMBER, this is just Saturday, a new batch arrives on Sunday from MT with Light to Moderate snow on this one for Central WY.

--CANADIAN shows the same from the NAM Model, but the Low just slightly south of the NAM track.

Moderate to Heavy Snow is with this in Central WY, but the GEM (Canadian) likes to be more 'aggressive' than most models.  We shall see how it pans out.

--EUROPEAN likes the snow to be a little bit slower than the NAM on their runs.. About 6 hours slower, in fact. 

Moderate snow is likely with this track for Central WY with Upslope potential.  Not to forget, the GFS is siding with the EURO on this one as well.

-Light to Moderate snow continues on Sunday for both models with the new batch from MT for Central WY.


METEOGRAM TIME:

(LEFT) Casper-- 6-10"

(LEFT) Riverton: 6-12"

(LEFT) Lander:  10-22"

Remember, the 18"+ could creep near the foothills too..as you approach the Wind Rivers.






SNOW POTENTIAL AMOUNTS:

1st:  Here is the NAM Snow Amount through Sunday Morning...Remember, WE WILL see more snow by Sunday morning and afternoon.

Casper:  12-20"
Riverton:  8-14"

 2nd:  GFS Snow Amount:  

Not as much as the NAM, since the snow track is a little to the South and East..but still impressive.

CASPER:  6-10"
RIVERTON:  4-8"











THOUGHTS ??.....
Well folks, some of these snow amounts overwhelmed me tonight.  But we do have a very potent storm to forecast for and must use our thinking caps on this.  For a PERFECT snow, you want a Southern Low track to sweep and re-generate itself at the perfect spot East of the Rockies and travel to the Northeast.
This 'could' happen and still a 'ways away' from it.  PLEASE follow our latest trends/models here at KTWO.

-MIKE

2/6: WEDNESDAY'S Light Snow and Mild Temps...SNOWY WEEKEND?

Haven't posted a Blog in quite sometime, but the threat of Heavy Snow for Central WY is possible.

Haven't Done so, here is Tuesday's Night's Video Forecast:  TUESDAY'S WEBCAST

WEDNESDAY:
A Weak Front will swing through from MT into WY during the day and will drop light snow for the YNP/Bighorns.  Just not enough Moisture with this bad boy, but enough to coat in the Higher Elevations. Temperatures, however, another Mild Day for Central/Eastern WY with clouds and readings nearing 50° again.

(ABOVE) As you see, maybe a dusting to an Inch in the Bighorns and Inch or two for YNP..and maybe light snow for the Snowy's and Sierra Madre's.


WEEKEND:

VERY hard to forecast this snow system at this time.  Models are varying and differentiating itself. Plus, a 1-2 Punch will come with this and later a 3rd Wave approaches later Sunday.

SYNOPSIS:  An Approaching Cold Front will slide in and bring a deep Trough of Cold air and an Upper Low from the Southwest moving NE into the Colorado area.  Low deepens from 1008 > 996 MB at times.  If you know what means, lots of Deepening and Pressure with intense banding possible..UPSLOPE potential. NOT DONE YET,...A new shot of Colder Air swings in on Sunday with a Low dropping from Canada/MT into WY. Thus, bringing more Snow chances on top of the Saturday snow.

--GFS on Friday Night:  LOW is giving some moisture over-riding on top of more moisture (Isentropics) for Southern/Western WY. 

--This is the story painted for 11PM Friday Night.

--EUROPEAN Model showing the Low in the same placement on Saturday Morning at 5AM

NOTE the Wind Barbs showing a NE wind flow component...keep an eye on it.  UPSLOPE potential. Light to Moderate Snowfall is possible for West of the Divide and just West of Casper.

--GFS Saturday Night at 11PM

The LOW intensifies like I mentioned in CO and continues the Snow for Central WY.  Winds could come from the 'North', but with that being said, Upslope is not a potential during this times.

-SE WY (Cheyenne) looks like they could see heavier snow at this time.

NOW...Eyes turn North in MT.  That Moisture will drop South giving us that extra chance of Snow Potential.

--EUROPEAN  at 11PM Saturday Night:

--NOW, look at the Placement of the Low on this.  Here, its slightly North than the GFS.  IF, this is right, we will see MORE snow potential for Central WY. Plus, the Low is deep at 996MB.  Deeper the Low, more intense the Snow could be.

--SNOW in Northern MT will drop in WY by Sunday.



WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

Still, a lot can change between Now and Friday.  Snow Accumulations are through the Roof with some models but we will fine-tune them when Thursday approaches.  Still not sure where the LOW will go, but that is whats so hard about tracking Lows..they have a mind of its own.

HOWEVER, here is the GFS SNOW MAP to give you an estimate what we could see...don't Trust this amount at first.

NEXT POST Wednesday Night.