POST-SNOW Thoughts and Analysis..& Looking AHEAD

Wow!  what a Storm Central WY and the Laramies endured this past week!  

What Happened? 
First, it all began late last week when a Cold Front pushed South into WY and it 'stalled' in Northern CO.  Cold Air was already in Placed, but then several pieces of Energy came off the Pacific and slid from WA and dug South into NV and swung to the Northeast into UT/CO.  The Placement of these Low's provided Moisture into Central and Southeast WY for several days, with one Low after another.

--Over 3-4' of Snow fell ontop of the Laramies around Casper Mtn and 2-3' in the Sierra's and Snowy's.

GOOD Thing is we got the Moisture to help out our Drought Relief

--BEFORE the Snows, Much of us were in the Extreme Drought...now, we've improved a little and are now in the Severe Drought.  

-- PLUS, the Snow-Water Equivalent map, I used on-air tonight, shows improvement for the Laramies, Bighorns, but Central WY is still a little dry.

-100% is 'Normal' but we are still slightly Below our Normals for the Platte River basin for the Northern Laramies and the only area that's STILL below Average are the Green/Rattlensake Ranges.

--Lots of Moisture for much of SE and Eastern WY

As we head to the Summer Months, we'll keep an eye on this very closely!

--How MUCH Snow is shaping up to qualify for our Snow Depth?  Bright 'Purple and Pink' colors are what you want for the Deep Snow-Pack



-Nice Snow Depth for the Lower Elevations.




Also want to Note this, CASPER MTN is still about 5" below where we should be for our Snow Depth, we'll keep a close eye on that, as well.

SO..Anything in the Near Future?

1) On-Shore Flow from the Pacific will slide in on Saturday giving us a Rain/Snow Mix chance, but a better Chance of Snow with our Next Cold Front from MT dipping down into Wyoming by Sunday Evening.  
2) AT THIS TIME, the best area's of Heaviest Snow's seem to be in the Black Hills and Bighorns..
But this does give Light Snow for the Mountain about 2-6" from the NAM.

Keeping an eye on our Snow each day, this week!

4/7: Sunday Evening Update...'SNOW' anyone?

GOOD Sunday Evening Everyone!

The Afternoon brought in Warm Temperatures with High's in the Lower 60°s for Much of Central WY.  However, Moist Pacific Coast moisture has slid in and will continue our 'Rain Chances' through the evening...

 

Showers have been very spotty, but best coverage will be in the Mountainous areas. Some snow is possible in the Higher Elevations in the Bighorns and West of the Divide in Tetons...up to 10" is possible!


BEFORE OUR STORM, Here is a Look at the 'lack' of Snow Depth throughout the State...Very Bad :(

Blown away how 'little' our snow is in the Laramies, where only the Northern Laramies have any 'measurable' snow depth, besides the Bighorns, Sierra's, Snowy's, and the West of the Divide.


NOW, lets get to the Timeline of when to Expect this Snow Arrival...BTW, this was made after looking at past Model Data from various runs of the Canadian, European, NAM, and GFS. I forgot to Mention that the Snow 'should' Taper off when we get to Late Tuesday and Early Wednesday Morning.

 

 

Watches are out, and can likely see these changes to WARNINGS as we Progress late into the Evening or Early Monday Morning before the Storm arrives.  Here are the CURRENT Winter Storm Watches as of 6PM Sunday:  
The BLUE depicts the Winter Storm Watches, while the GREEN shows the Blizzard Watches

NOW, I showed you the Timeline & Advisory Board...Here is my 1st Projected Snow Amount Map...

Remember, as this Storm digs out of NV and into CO, it all depends on where the Storm 'cranks' up as the Upslope begins to form.  We must carefully watch our Temperatures and DewPoint/Relative Humidity cause if we are 'dry', this could take the snow a little while to get going.
PLEASE note that this storm is 'subject to change' with the amounts.

Casper, Cheyenne, Jeffrey City, Wheatland, Torrington: 6-12"
Riverton, Rock Springs, and much of Northern WY:  3-7"
Pinedale, Big Piney (Green River Basin): 1-4"
Lusk and 'near' Newcastle: 12-18" +


METEOGRAM TIME:

Sometimes the Iowa St. Meteogram is quite accurate with the ranges of how much or little snow could be seen.
Here is Casper's:

Hard to see, but is showing 8-24" at the Airport...wide range!





And, this is for Riverton:

Snow Range of: 5-17"..still a large Range!







Last, but not least...here is Cheyenne's:

Snow Range of 5-12"..A little bit better 'confined'







TO SUM UP: 
 Still a lot of data coming in as the Low is about to dig into NV as our Cold Front is sagging South from MT into WY for the Morning.  Many things can still change, but I'll be keeping up with my Posts on my Page!

4/4: Friday's forecast and Looking Ahead to Next Week's SNOW POTENTIAL

Evening to all! 

Much of our Thursday was Sunny with an increase of clouds, but very Warm Temperatures as we Tied for our Warmest day of the Year so far here in Casper.  Here is a recap of how 'Warm' it got.

NOW, lets get to Friday's Forecast:

Temperature wise, we will stay warm in the Mid to Upper 60°s for many of us in Central & Eastern WY.  Could squeeze out a few 70°s East of the Laramies, possibly in Wheatland or Torrington area.
COLD Front will slide through the Afternoon/Evening Hours bringing the 'best' chances of rain West of the Divide, Bighorns, I-80 Corridor just West of the Laramies and Black Hills. However, Central WY could still see a chance of a Shower.
(BELOW) This is the GFS Model for Friday Evening at 6PM showing you the coverage of the Showers:

Saturday looks Slightly Cooler in the lower 60°s for much of Central WY with a very small chance of a Shower and on Sunday.

EARLY WEEK:

BIG CHANGES are on the way as a Cold Front will slide in from the North to the South in WY and then an Upper Level Low from the Southwest Basins/Desert will drift to the North around CO. 
What does this mean?  Here is what the GFS is showing...

(ABOVE)  Very strong Low deepening at 988mb in East-Central CO with a Northeast wind flow; supporting Upslope in Casper and the Laramies.  PLUS, our 540 (Freezing Line) is represented showing how 'Cold' it could get again..meaning WINTER is not over yet.  

Timing:  I think we'll mostly see a  Rain/Snow mix as we head into Monday, but as the Colder Air gets closer and the shift of wind is out of the NE that evening..watch out! RIGHT NOW, I think the biggest risk areas are: Casper, Laramies, Shirley Basin, Sierra/Snowy's, and all along 25 South through Cheyenne and rest of SE WY.


METEOGRAM TIME ( Snowfall Projections)

Casper: 3-5"
Cheyenne: 8-13"