10/22: SNOWTalk continues for early Next Week

Despite a Weak Clipper moving through Wednesday, overall not much to Discuss after an Amazing Tuesday with Highs in the Middle 60°s!  Ridge of High Pressure will continue to surge our Temperatures at or slightly above Average by Friday, so its looking pretty good.

Sunday Afternoon looks fine in the Upper 50°s and Dry Conditions, but conditions will slowly deteriorate during the late evening.  A lot of the Cold Air & Snow will stay put in Montana, but maybe a Flurry chance in the Northern Tier of WY.

LATEST Models from GFS show the Slower Progression of the Storm as it Organizes in Central WY; meaning, Upslope Snowfall likely. 

MONDAY AM:  The Evening GFS Run is a little Slower than the Morning EURO and here's what we are looking at: 

<< GFS shows Light to Moderate Snow breaking out in YNP/Absaroka's as a 1004mb Low forms near the Wasatch over UT.  

The GFS run shows a stronger Low than the EURO so that is something to keep an eye on; while our Cold Front impacts Central WY






MONDAY NOON:  The Low looks to stay at the same Intensity but becomes Broad in UT/CO Line.  Moderate Snow is possible in the Absaroka's as Central WY could experience some Light Snow or Flurry activity. 

-- EURO earlier today showed Heavier Snows in Bighorns, but Models still show inconsistent similarities and Intensities as it's still hard storm to Forecast.









MONDAY PM:  Now as we roll into the Evening Hours, our Low slides 'slowly' due East along I-70 in Colorado with the Upslope Effect in Central WY.  

<<  IF this is correct, expect a period of Moderate to HEAVY Snow possible in Central WY from Lander/Riverton & Casper and maybe Thermopolis area's.  

** This is what I was concerned as our Low could slow down and organize bringing that Heavy Snow threat along the 20/26 Corridor.  


-- Last Night, GFS had a nice banding along the Laramies, now it takes out that Chance with this evening's run.

TUESDAY AM:  The Colder Air wedging from the North to the South and a Broad Low in Colorado continues to show Moderate Snowfall in Central WY.  Could be another Big Snow for Casper as the Upslope continues. I am concerned how this Snow & Low is slowly Stalling and cycling which means the Snow could pile up fast.

** FINALLY, the EURO from this Morning is agreeing with the GFS of this Evening as the Upslope continues for Central WY

Now the I-90 Corridor can likely see some Nice Snowfall all the way to Rapid City and Black Hills area.  







TUESDAY PM:  As the Evening rolls around, we will likely see the Activity dissipate and shift to the East in the Plains as the Colder Air ushers in.  So for right Now, I am calling this storm a  ** System to Watch** 

THOUGHTS:  Storm is still now under a Week away and showing signs of something Big for a few right now in Central WY.  Heavy Snow is a potential as the Upslope component is there with some Jet Stream Dynamics is there with Cold Air in play.  Colorado is also a threat for some Moderate Snow but we will watch how the Models stay Consistent with each run and IF the Models show Similarities.