Tuesday, November 19, 2013

11/19: Tuesday Evening SNOWTalk

ALL Eyes point toward Late Wednesday & Thursday for the Snow-Hungry Wyomingites!  

I feel your pain folks, but lets get right to the Forecast.  The Front will begin to push from the North in Montana with Snow likely but as we arrive by the Afternoon Hours, we'll see the Front sag with some Flurries possible along I-90.  Central WY stays Dry but mild/Breezy ahead of the Front. 

<< Thought I think the Futurecast is slightly 'fast', BOTH Models tonight show the Front a smidge North.  









As we Roll into Mid-Evening, the Front will impact all of Central WY.  Winds will stay breezy and the drop of the Temperatures will be likely behind it.  Light Snow should break out for much of the Bighorn Country and maybe some Moderate Snowfall for Western WY as that Low will drop farther South into Southwestern WY/ID/ and Near Salt Lake. Flurries are possible for Central WY, but it'll take a while for our airmass to moisten up for the Snow to fall at the Surface since we will have low Humidity before the Snow Starts. 
 (IMAGE BELOW)
<< Though I do think Cheyenne will stay fairly quiet through the day, but I think they'll see the Front late Evening and early Overnight Hours.  

* The LOW Should be Broad, but not Compact at 1008mb.

Compact Low= Tighter Circulation and deepening Storm




SNOW should be light for all of Central WY as roll into Midnight and Overnight Hours.  The Low will sort of Stall or stay in one spot in Northern UT/ and Western WY.  Plus, the Front should drop into the Cheyenne area as High Pressure pushes it South. (IMAGE BELOW)



THURSDAY will be Cold & Snowy for much of Wyoming as this will be some of the Coldest Air we will see so far this season.  I think at times, the Snow could be Moderate (at Times) maybe near Casper or along the Laramies.  We have to watch and see as the Low tracks East along I-70 to our South in Utah/Colorado. 

<< What I am Forecasting is an area of High Pressure from the Dakotas/Montana drop South fast as it catches up with the Low in UT/CO along the Front. 

IF...Iffff, that occurs, some parts of Wyoming could see a nice band of snow developing for a Few Hours. But that is very Hard to Forecast. For Now, I am calling for LIGHT SNOW for most of the morning through mid-afternoon for a good chunk of Central & Southeastern WY.  Once we Roll into THURSDAY EVENING, snow should start tapering off from the North to the South as COLD AIR invades the Northern Rockies.  I think Flurries are likely for Central WY and Light Snow by Early Evening, but CLEARING after 9PM. (IMAGE BELOW)


MODEL SNOW AMOUNTS:  ** These are NOT my Forecasts **
 Here is the GFS Evening Run




















...AND here is the NAM Evening Run: 




















What I ALSO look at is a Forecast Snow Amount Range from the Iowa St Meteogram:

<< This is Casper: 2-5"

Other Cities show
Riverton: 1-3"
Lander: 2-6"
Cheyenne: 1-4"

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