Friday, November 29, 2013

11/29: Friday Evening SNOWTalk

Evening Folks... a COPIOUS Amount of things to get too, so lets begin about this Weekend and I will break it down in Regions of the State since I cover a large chunk.

*Central & Eastern WY:  Mild & Dry Weather persists through the Weekend with Above Average Temperatures in Mid-Upper 40°s; but becoming Breezy through the Wind Corridors.

*Western WY:  A Broad Longwave Trough from the West will slide in on Saturday ushering some Light Snow throughout the Afternoon and Evening Hours. However, the Snow could likely linger on SUNDAY too as this is a very Moist Flow from the Pacific.

From Late Saturday and through overnight Sunday into Monday Morning, a few waves will usher in Light to Moderate Snowfall for the West ahead of our BIG Storm impacting the Rest of Wyoming by Early Tuesday.








MONDAY looks to be BLUSTERY for much of Central & Eastern WY along the Wind Corridors once again. Mild Temperatures as we will be Above Average for the High's.  Another Wave of Energy will slide into Western WY once again dropping another round of Several Inches of Snow. SNOW continues for Monday Evening for Western WY as the Cold Front blasts through the Region (IMAGE BELOW)



<< Tonight's NAM/GFS have been Similar for the Track and Timing AND the Intensity on the Snow for Western WY.


** Something to closely keep an eye out on through the Weekend **





TUESDAY MORNING looks to be the new Time-frame for Central WY as Evening Data "sped" things up on the Cold Front and the Precipitation.  I think it won't take long for our Mix>Snow Transition to develop.
What is very good I saw tonight was that the GFS/NAM Models Both agreed on the Cool Front draping over the  US 20-26 Corridor from Lander-Riverton-Casper

<< GFS & NAM do have Different Takes on a Low in Southern WY.  GFS likes a deep 1000mb Low developing in the Wasatch Mtns while the NAM is trending a Low right ontop of Casper with big snow North of the city and Douglas.








TUESDAY EVENING looks very Active as our Cold Front drops South into Cheyenne and along I-80.  Moderate Snowfall is possible for a while in Central WY as some Heavier Snow is possible near Rawlins and a good chunk of I-80. A compact 1000mb Low wants to now form in Eastern UT/Western CO so this could also mean Accumulation possible for the Laramies (IMAGE BELOW)


* HAZARDOUS Driving Conditions could be possible too, so please stay tuned for all the Closures. 









WEDNESDAY continues to be very Hazardous for a good chunk of Central & Southern WY; now including the Cheyenne area.  Moderate Snow (1"/Hour) could last through the Overnight and into the Morning Hours for much of the Cities. I don't think this will be a Bighorns or I-90 Snowstorm but Light Snow is likely.  I am concerned for Casper Mtn and Laramies area as this will be what "the Dr ordered" for Snowfall. By Late Morning, Moderate Snow continues and could be Heavy at times in a few Isolated spots.

<< UPSLOPE is Likely as a Compact 1000mb Low slides into West-Central CO and you can tell the Wrap-Around Moisture with the Wind Barbs showing a North-Northeast Wind shift.









WEDNESDAY EVENING looks Snowy for Southeastern WY if the Low stays compacted in Colorado.  Cheyenne could still Moderate Snowfall while Light Snow/Flurries are possible for Central WY (Lander>Casper) as the Storm system exits and the COLD Blast sets in as a deep Surface High plows in.


<< Denver 'could' see light to moderate snowfall if this pattern varifies.










THURSDAY could be BRUTAL if we see a Deep Snowpack, guys.  BELOW ZERO is likely and How Cold is still to be determined.  Lots of Dark Purple and some Red is possible on this Color Table.  
With the Snowpack, could see Temps dropping -10° very Likely and -30° in some Isolated Spots.  THIS is what i have been hinting at all Week, Folks.  It will be Cold, but this is Arctic Air. (IMAGE BELOW)

















THOUGHTS: This will be a 1-2 Punch.  Moderate Snowfall 1st (6-12"), but then the Arctic Blast.  COLD/BITTER Temps are Possible by Thursday Morning and we 'could' stay that way for a while as not much of a Ridge could develop to "warm" us up anytime Soon.  I will keep everyone posted through the Weekend.  

AS ALWAYS, Storm tracks can shift ever so slightly, so the new Models could say something differently and the Amounts could either Drop or Increase. 


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